Should be valid from Wednesday (12) New 25% tariffs of the United States over all Steel imports and aluminum Made across the country, as it will hurt Brazil among other partners. This weekend, after some setbacks Donald Trump in the imposition of fees on Mexico and Canada, the Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick He responded to NBC News with a laconic yes when the date was requested.
Although the Brazilian government has tried to reduce the temperature of the debate on US protectionism, new tariffs should have a strong impact on Brazilian companies in both sectors. And still hangs the insecurity of new rates, as the Trump administration promises retaliatory taxes – ethanol was specially quoted in a statement from the White House.
Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, confirmed that he had participated in a Lutnick video conferencing last week and said that Brazil is looking for a win-win understanding with the US in negotiations, but no postponement was announced.
O Infomoney He listed some details about the justifications presented by the US to impose new tariffs, the repercussions and the possible effects of the measures. See below.
What are the reasons for US tariffs?
As had already happened in Donald Trump’s first management (2017-2020), the “America First” doctrine incorporated the many complaints of the American productive sector on how subsidized trade policies in several countries have impaired manufacturing and, consequently, US jobs. This time, there is a search for tariff reciprocity, as there are more barriers to American products abroad than those existing at the entrance of imported products there. Also part of this strategy is an attempt to reduce China’s power in global trade. In terms of geopolitics, Trump also wants to weaken the BRICS, especially because of the proposal of a currency that would replace the dollar in trade relations between the members of the block.
Does Brazil charge excessive US tariffs?
The answer to this question is complex. As showed Infomoneya. The US would be even lower, around 2.5%. But this Brazilian import tariff is the average consolidated in the WTO. In practice, according to data from CNI and AMcham Brasil, the real fare applied by Brazil, due to special customs regimes such as Drawback, former Tarifário and Recof, would be only 2.7%. In addition, the Chamber of Commerce recalls that 48% of US exports to Brazil enter without tariffs, while another 15% have less than 2% tariffs – Geraldo Alckmin said this week that exemption reaches 70%. But there are specific cases that escape this rule: when it announced its future “fair and reciprocal plan” of tariffs, Trump pointed out that US tariff over ethanol is only 2.5%, while Brazil charges 18%tariff.
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How is the trade between Brazil and the USA
Although China is already the main commercial partner in Brazil, the US only lost this position in 2009, according to Ipea data. But Americans are still leading to purchases of Brazilian products of higher added value. According to AMCHAM study released in 2024 – year of the 200th anniversary of diplomatic relations between countries – Brazil has been the main destination for industrialized goods in the last nine consecutive years, with US $ 29.9 billion in 2023, ahead of the entire European bloc (US $ 23.5 billion) and Mercosur (US $ 19.4 billion). In addition, the United States is the main destination for high -tech Brazilian products (such as aircraft, medicines and some machines), representing, on average, 47.7% of the total sold by Brazil in this segment between 2001 and 2023. Between 2014 and 2023, the US accumulated a commercial surplus of US $ 263.1 billion in goods and services with Brazil. By 2024, the US commercial surplus of the US goods was $ 7.3 billion. In addition, companies that sell to the US pay higher wages and have international equity standards.
How much does Brazil sell steel to the US?
According to data from the Brazil Steel Institute, in the last five years, the United States has had an average commercial surplus of US $ 6 billion with the country. Considering, specifically, the trade of the main items of the steel chain – charcoal, steel and machinery and equipment – USA and Brazil have a current of $ 7.6 billion, the United States being surplus at US $ 3 billion. By 2028, Trump had also determined 2%rates, but governments negotiated export quotas for the US market for 3.5 million tons of semi-cabels/plates and 687,000 tons of laminates. Steel Brazil highlighted in February that the US imported, by 2024, 5.6 million tons of signs because it did not have sufficient supply for the demand of the product in its domestic market, of which 3.4 million tons came from Brazil.
And aluminum?
US dependence on Brazilian aluminum is lower than in the case of steel, since Canada is the largest supplier. According to data from the Brazilian Aluminum Association (Abal), although this participation in US imports of aluminum products is relatively small, less than 1%, the US is an important commercial partner and corresponds to 16.8% of Brazilian metal exports, which moved $ 267 million out of $ 1.5 billion exported by the sector in 2024. tons) Brazilian exports of aluminum products. Of this total, aluminum sheets and leaves corresponded to 76% of the volume.
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What are the impacts of tariffs?
Abal highlighted in an official note that, in addition to the impacts on trade balance, they concern the indirect effects associated with the increase in Brazil’s exposure to trading deviations and unfair competition. “Products of other origins that lose access to the US market will seek new destinations, including Brazil, and can generate a saturation of the domestic markets at unfair prices,” the association said. The imposition of new tariffs can also result in a trend of raising regional prices, especially in places that depend on imports, which can cause a realignment in global supply chains and modify traditional commercial flows. The Steel Brazil Institute pointed out that the Brazilian market also “has been plagued by the significant increase of imports from countries that practice predatory competition, especially China, reason for the entity requested the Brazilian government to implement a trade defense measure”, expanding the current barrier of quota-tax regime.
And for the US?
The expected positive impact for US steel and aluminum producers will probably be counterbalanced at higher prices for both industries in various sectors – such as automotive, food processing, construction and even defense – such as US consumers. In addition, by decreasing competition, household producers may find less motivation to keep prices low. For Deutsche Bank, this tariffs, coupled with reciprocal tariffs, can increase the pricing rate of personal consumer spending – the PCE, an important measure of inflation – over 0.4 percentage point.
