Political crisis has an impact on the economy? “External Instability” hurts more

An “prolonged impasse” would have financial effect in the country, but the economic growth recorded in the last semesters has fortified the capacity for Portuguese resistance. But geopolitics can plot us.

This Wednesday, the Minister of Finance, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, strictly rejected that the current political crisis resulting from the lead of the confidence motion presented by the government impacts on the national economy.

At a conference, the minister assured that “in no way” would impact the political crisis on Portuguese results.

This is because “the Portuguese economy had a 1.9%growth, higher than the institution’s estimate. The fourth quarter (last year) was frankly positive, we had the highest growth in chain in the European Union with 1.5%, the third largest growth in homologous variation with 2.9%and this means the Carry Over effect to 2025 of 1.4%”.

That is, even if there is an economic stagnation, Portugal never lowered. Miranda Sarmento sums up: “Even though the 2025 quarter rooms stagnated, the Portuguese economy would still grow by 1.4%.”

The economist of the Carregosa Banco Paulo Rosa, quoted by, agrees with this view. It states that the economic growth recorded is due to “tourism, increasing the number of people employed and the growth of foreign investment, factors that contrast positively with the rest of Europe.” It also refers to the descent of the unemployment rate for historical values.

“No investor sees these favorable macroeconomic variables and the policy of consolidating public accounts to be posed with the early elections, as they were not earlier,” he says.

Of course, “a prolonged impasse in government formation or a radical change in economic orientation” may yes affect the economy. However, there are other factors that affect it more.

This is the case of “External instability” which is “quite complex”as explained by economist Filipe Grilo. Refers not only to the application of Tarifas in Europa by the US, but also to Increased spending in defenseat a time when tensions between the West and Russia grow.

In this sense, it would be preferable, points out another analyst, Ricardo Amaro, Portugal to find himself in a phase of political stability. “It would be desirable to have a government in full functions in the coming months due to external instability,” he says.

E o prr?

The European Commission guarantees to what “the political process It has no direct implications for the Plan of Recovery and Resilience (PRR) ”.

The European Commission spokesman stated that “PRR’s commitments are made by the Member States and not by individual governments. Therefore, the political process has no direct implications in PRR ”.

That is, in the scenario of early elections, the European representatives guarantee that will continue “working with an interim governmentboth in the interim review with the execution of cohesion policy programs more broadly. ”