A 30 -day truce is, initially, an undoubtedly positive news. After hundreds of thousands of deaths and. This truce will enter into force if Russia agrees on the same terms, according to a joint statement by the Ukrainian governments and.
The framework of the agreement was, with the participation of negotiators, including US Secretary of State, Mark Rubio, and, on the Ukrainian side, the head of President Volodimir Zelenski’s office, Antriy Germak.
He says it will be difficult for any side to reject the truce. Moscow will be under pressure to prove that it is not an obstacle to US President Donald Trump’s target for peace at all costs.
To maintain the illusion that he is a “partner” of Trump in this process, the Russian president will probably accept some form of peace. Perhaps not an immediate truce, and possibly, as Russia has done in the past, delay its implementation to achieve military targets, especially in the Kursk region, where Ukraine is close to the loss of the small Russian territory it holds since August.
An indication is the fact that Moscow’s initial reaction. Speaking to the state -run Russian news agency TASS, Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zaharova said: “We do not exclude contact with US representatives in the coming days.” “The formation of the position of the Russian Federation does not take place abroad due to some agreements or efforts by some parties involved. The formation of the position of the Russian Federation takes place within the Russian Federation, “she said.
So many will be confronted with a reality that is far from the theory of telephone diplomacy.
The first major concern is that one cannot trust the Kremlin for meaningful negotiations, as history shows that it is rarely bound to them. The second concern is that Kiev maintains maximalist goals for recovering its territories and refuses to freeze the front lines, as it would mean the possible permanent loss of 20% of its territory. At the same time, Ukraine will not be able to be re -arranged at the same pace as Russia and will be at a disadvantaged position when Moscow attacks again.
A distant dream recovery of territories
However, it is clear that most Ukrainians now consider the counterattack to regain territories a distant dream, when even the basic defense against Russian attacks is undermined by deficiencies in ammunition and staff. The chaos and barbarism of this war do not favor a truce. On the contrary, every ceasefire will probably turn into a battle of responsibility for its collapse.
Putin’s main goal, for the time being, is to convince Trump that Zelensky is the obstacle to peace. The Russian president cannot deny a truce agreement without losing the “moral advantage”. However, what will happen after – or during a temporary cessation of hostilities – will determine the final outcome of the war.
In hundreds of kilometers, both sides have used armored, artillery and unmanned aircraft for years to chase each other, in an area that now bears the cynical name “beetroot” – horrible mud from the bodies of warriors who fell.
Many have expectations that for a month, all of a sudden, all battles will end. That no mistakes will be made and that no one will open fire due to panic or to clear accounts. How there will be no parting, which will cause shootings that will permanently dissolve peace efforts.
For this reason, initially Ukrainian and European officials have proposed a partial truce that would only include air, naval attacks and effects on energy infrastructure, arguing that this would be easier to oversee forces and the violations could be brought. However, this proposal was rejected at Jeddah’s meeting, resulting in a more general truce. If Moscow agrees all battles should stop for a month.
Sure there will be errors
However, it is almost certain that there will be mistakes and conflicts. Russia has proven its ability to misinform, Maskirovka (that is, cheating on the battlefield) and provocations. During any ceasefire, there will be moments where conflicts with light weapons or drone attacks will be impossible to clearly attribute to someone. Artificial intelligence manipulation tactics, false accounts or completely fantastic incidents may flood the information space.
The history of the last decade feeds pessimism for the future of war. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, but pretended to do so. In 2015 he agreed to a truce and occupied the Ukrainian city of Debalseve in the first few days. In 2022 he argued that he would not launch a full -scale invasion of Ukraine – and eventually he did. She initially argued that she did not use prisoners on the front, but many of her prisons were emptied.
The risk of new attack
Moscow’s history must be the guide for any assessment of how much peace can last. The danger is clear: if the truce collapses – probably due to Russian actions – and Trump mistakenly convinced that Ukraine is responsible, western military aid can freeze again, this time with even more revenge mood. Moscow will claim to be a victim and launch a new, even more severe attack, in a Ukraine that will be weakened by the temporary ceasefire.
