A Brazilian coffee production in 2025 It was estimated on Thursday (13) in 52.8 million bags of 60 kg, increase of 0.4% compared to the forecast of the previous month, with adjustment expectation for canephoric grains, according to a survey of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
If the estimate for the crop that begins to be harvested between April and May, the harvest of the largest producer and coffee exporter this year would have a decline of 7.5% compared to 2024, due to reductions of 2.5% in the area to be harvested and 5.1% in productivity.
The drop in productivity is mainly due to the negative bienality of much of the Arabian coffee areas, which records a natural drop in the performance by hectare due to the physiological characteristics of the species, which changes years of greater with others of lower production.
In addition, the coffee plantations affected by the hot and dry climate of 2024 will produce less than expected in 2025.
“The 2025 coffee crop is also reflecting climate problems in the main units of the Federation Production, notably the lack of rainfall and excess heat, during the second half of 2024, which is why it is starting with relatively lower production potential,” he said.
Arabica coffee crop was estimated at 34.9 million bags of 60 kg, declines of 0.1% over the previous month and 12.8% over the volume produced in 2024.
The IBGE noted, however, that from the end of the year the rains returned with good intensity and frequency, which may have positive reflexes later.
In Minas Gerais, the largest Brazilian producer of Café Arabica, with 71.1% participation of the crop, is expected a production of 24.8 million bags of 60 kg, decline of 10.4% compared to the volume harvested in 2024.
For Café Cânefora (robust or conilon), the production estimate was 17.9 million bags of 60 kg, an increase of 1.5% over the previous month and 4.9% over the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 1.0% in the area to be harvested and 3.9% in average income.
In Espírito Santo, Conilon’s largest Brazilian producer with 65.8% participation, production should grow 5.6% over the volume produced in 2024, reflecting the same increase in average income. Production was estimated at 11.8 million bags of 60 kg.
“Producers, stimulated by excellent conilon prices in the market, should invest more in fertilization and cultural treatments,” IBGE said in a report.
