Rubio Guatemala visit on his tour of Central America / David Toro | Efe
The increase in Deportations from the United States and the potential will have important repercussions on the Economies of Central America. This will also cause the interruption of programs focused on reducing unemployment, violence and corruption, further promoting migration What can leaders do in Central America to face this situation?
What is at stake in Central America?
Las policies of towards Central America they will directly impact several of the factors that They encourage migration. Unemployment, poverty and violence in Central American countries affect to a greater extent women and young people, and it is precisely these who in recent years represent most of migrants.
The Deportation of Central American citizens It will also have a great impact. In 2024, Guatemala He received between seven and eight return flights a week and this number is expected to increase between 9 and 11 flights, reaching 92,000 people a year. This will generate a sudden increase in the workforce in countries where what is missing are economic opportunities. He unemployment In Central America in 2023 it was the surroundings of the 7% but with working conditions marked by a great precariousness.
It is Increase in deportations numberin turn, it will translate into a Decreased remittances From the USA. According to the World Bank, in 2022 the remittances represented 19% of Guatemala’s gross domestic product and more than a quarter of that of Honduras. And although the decrease in remittances was not too significant, the weight of these to the domestic product is disproportionate and represents much of the expenses in food, health, basic services and education of many people. For the poorest quintile of Central Americans Almost 50% of their income come from remittances.
This negative cycle of Trump’s policies closes with the elimination of the programs of the USAID agency. These programs are not only Financing sourcesbut also sources of technical knowledge and have helped improve the abilities of nations.
Although the Measures implemented For the United States, they have the Central American countries in suspense, They are not new. During Trump’s first mandate, the region lived the effects of reducing technical and economic support and one of the most significant impacts was the CICIG and MACCHI CLOSUREorganizations that effectively worked to dismantle the networks of Corruption in Guatemala and Honduras. The elimination of these organizations was an impulse for corruption to continue to suck the economic resources of these countries.
Who can fill these gaps?
In this context, Central American leaders should consider the possibility of approach new allies. However, can the increase in trade with other nations activate the economy and supplant the revenues of remittances? Are there real alternatives to US cooperation?
China It is an alternative due to its iGeopolitical and economic ntereses in the region. However, Central America does not have the natural resources of hydrocarbons and minerals that South America has and that have generated so much attraction. Besides, Guatemala and Belize They continue to support Taiwan, which blocks the possibility of strengthening their relations with China. While commercial ties between Nicaragua and the Asian power are strong and are gradually developing with Honduras and El Salvador. However, from a Central American perspective, alignment with China could be a double -edged swordsince it could unleash the fury of the US president activating an update in the export product tariffs Towards the United States.
Other partners that could be relevant to the future are the European and Indian Union, However, at the moment its weight remains limited and there is no view of a substantial change in the medium term.
The International cooperation It is another fundamental actor for the region. The cooperation agencies of the European Union, Japan and Taiwanthe USAID equivalent, are present in the region, but focus on different themes. The European Commission Help in the Humanitarian assistance before disasters and responses to epidemics (dengue), while national agencies such as Spanish cooperation Work in Regional Education and Integration and the GTZ of Germany It focuses on governance, human rights, environment and economic sustainability. He Jica de Japan among other issues attend in the economic integration, conservation of natural resources and agricultural development and Taiwan ICDF Agencywho only works with Guatemala and Belize, It focuses on health, transport, education and agriculture projects.
While these programs are important, their volume is not comparable with that of the United States government. While in 2024 the European Union awarded US $ 31 million to Central America and Mexicoin USAthe item for assistance to Central America in the budget proposal for 2025 was from US $ 638 million. Therefore, it is clear that it will not be easy for the countries in the region to quickly replace the potential cuts that the administration of Donald Trump would impose to the region.
In conclusion, the stress caused by the Reduction of assistance, the contraction of remittances and the sudden increase of the population It will push Central American nations to seek new solutions. In the short and medium term, alliances between governments and the private sector and the increase in the participation of other assistance agencies can be helpful.
However, it is important that the leaders of the governments of the region begin to establish New commercial alliances to improve the living conditions of their countries in the long term without depending on the fluctuations of the northern power. And they should also remind the Trump administration what are the Causes of Central American migration Towards your country.
