Miguel A. Lopes / Lusa
Pedro Nuno Santos and Luís Montenegro
With predictions of the return of the deficit and the most volatile international markets, the parties will have to be more contained in electoral promises.
New elections, new wave of programs and electoral promises. But the parties will have to pull the reins to their progress, given the tighter budget margins and the unstable international environment.
In previous elections, the electoral commitments of the main political forces represented a impact of over 20 billion euros. The Democratic Alliance (AD) projected a cost of 7.2 billion by 2026, of which five billion would be intended for fiscal courts. The Socialist Party (PS), in turn, estimated an impact of four billion between 2025 and 2028, including tax reductions and the valorization of the civil service.
In addition to the two largest parties, other political forces also presented expensive proposals. The arrival defended an increase in pensions, with an estimated cost of 10.8 billion euros. Livre suggested measures with a two billion impact, while the Left Block and PAN predicted costs of three billion and 500 million, respectively.
The budget panorama, which previously benefited from a Unpublished surplus of 1.2% From GDP in 2023, it is now pressured by alerts of increased public expense. According to, Banco de Portugal (BDP) projects a Return to the deficit this yearwith values of 0.1% of GDP in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.
Government forecasts are slightly more optimistic, waiting for a surplus of 0.3% of GDP In 2025 and 0.1% in 2026, much affected by loans from the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR).
The Council of Public Finance (CFP) also diverges from government projections and alerts to Expense growth risks above European commitments. Among the factors that press the budget are projects such as the high speed line, the new Lisbon airport and the increase in health and defense spending.
The European Commission, in turn, proposes flexibility to increase defense expenses in up to 1.5% of GDP without tax penalties over the next four years. However, if Portugal uses this margin without compensatory measures, such as expenses or tax increases, it may face a public debt aggravation.
Given this scenario, the parties will have to juggle to simultaneously draw appealing proposals to the electorate and maintain the budgetary impact on their eye.
