For many in Europe, Trump has opened holes in the NATO nuclear shield

It is a new day in Europe.

The golden years of the American commitment is overwhelmed with the defense of Europe against Russia.

What is here to stay – at least while Donald Trump is in the White House – is something more transactional. And the risks could not be bigger.
Europe has to “take a big step forward to provide its own defense,” US Vice President Jd Vance told Munich decision makers in February.

Europe’s response, so far, has been to promise to increase internal and Ukraine expense to buy European manufacturing weaponry. But a more radical solution was also presented: a European “nuclear umbrella”.

If the United States have always been the elder brother in Europe, France and the United Kingdom are also long -standing nuclear powers – and some European leaders are questioning whether the final dissuasion to Moscow could come closer to home.

Although most of the world’s nuclear weapons are owned by the US or Russia, France has about 290 nuclear warheads and the United Kingdom 225 Trident of American Design missiles.

The last few weeks have witnessed a series of comments from European leaders seeking to reinforce their common defense under a British or French nuclear umbrella as Washington’s reliability seems to falter.

French President Emmanuel Macron promised, earlier this month, “opening the strategic debate on the protection, by our deterrent, of our allies on the European continent.”

His comments came after Germany’s next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, have appealed to conversations with France and the United Kingdom about the widening of their nuclear protection.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the French proposal “was not new” and had arisen several times in conversations, expressing his support for the idea.

Other leaders of countries historically averse to nuclear weapons, such as Sweden and Denmark, also greeted France’s opening demonstrations with the European allies.

Since General Charles de Gaulle established the French nuclear force in the late 1950s, partly to keep Paris at the center of global decision making, the France program has been proudly sovereign – “French -to -end,” as Macron described.

But for decades, during the Cold War, France has also sought to bring European allies to their nuclear protection, CNN Yannick Piné, historian of the Interdisciplinary Center for Strategic Studies (CIENS) in France.

The United Kingdom has not made any public offering to share or change its nuclear protection. But their warheads are still committed to the command of the US -dominated NATO, thus already offering strategic protection to European allies.

Some leaders still expect reinforced US support.

On Thursday, President Polish, Andrzej Duda, appealed to Trump to highlight US nuclear weapons in Poland compared to Russia’s decision to base some of his own nuclear missiles in Belarus in 2023.

“I think not only the time has come, but it would be safer if these weapons were already here,” Duda told Financial Times.

Hand-a-man

Although most of the world’s nuclear weapons are owned by the US or Russia, France has about 290 nuclear warheads and the United Kingdom 225 Trident of American Design missiles.
The last few weeks have witnessed a series of comments from European leaders seeking to reinforce their common defense under a British or French nuclear umbrella as Washington’s reliability seems to falter.

French President Emmanuel Macron promised, earlier this month, “opening the strategic debate on the protection, by our deterrent, of our allies on the European continent.”

His comments came after Germany’s next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, have appealed to conversations with France and the United Kingdom about the widening of their nuclear protection.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the French proposal “was not new” and had arisen several times in conversations, expressing his support for the idea.

Other leaders of countries historically averse to nuclear weapons, such as Sweden and Denmark, also greeted France’s opening demonstrations with the European allies.

Since General Charles de Gaulle established the French nuclear force in the late 1950s, partly to keep Paris at the center of global decision making, the France program has been proudly sovereign – “French -to -end,” as Macron described.

But for decades, during the Cold War, France has also sought to bring European allies to their nuclear protection, CNN Yannick Piné, historian of the Interdisciplinary Center for Strategic Studies (CIENS) in France.

The United Kingdom has not made any public offering to share or change its nuclear protection. But their warheads are still committed to the command of the US -dominated NATO, thus already offering strategic protection to European allies.

Some leaders still expect reinforced US support.

On Thursday, President Polish, Andrzej Duda, appealed to Trump to highlight US nuclear weapons in Poland compared to Russia’s decision to base some of his own nuclear missiles in Belarus in 2023.

“I think not only the time has come, but it would be safer if these weapons were already here,” Duda told Financial Times.

Without an Arsenal of the Russian scale, France only “managed to threaten strategic retaliation, that is, to reach the opponent very strongly to act as a deterrent,” nuclear historian Yannick Piné told CNN.

The relatively diminished dimension of the French nuclear arsenal, compared to the US, facilitated its rejection, even among the main Western generals, the Reformed General Michel Yakovleff, former deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe, told CNN.

In addition to its enormous power, the size and diversity of the American arsenal give it another fundamental advantage in the nuclear war: the potential to minimize any thermonuclear exchange. The US “can use what we call a graduated response,” said Pinch, to perhaps even perform a single attack rather than releasing his entire arsenal.

In contrast, the French nuclear arsenal-with submarines loaded with missiles and nuclear weapons bombers-was historically conceived as a last resort if the Russian Cold War forces threatened the French territory, probably releasing a dam on key places in the territories of the Soviet sphere to force enemy withdrawal.

These are differences that represent a fundamental challenge for any nuclear umbrella centered on Europe.

“One thing Europeans don’t have is nuclear culture. They don’t understand it because they always assumed that Americans would do it,” Yakovleff said. “I suspect Macron is thinking of, if they allow me, to educate anyone who wants it, about nuclear dialogue.”

Macron proposed that allies participate in the country’s secret nuclear exercises, to see firsthand the capabilities and decision -making of France.

But it also made it clear that he is not giving his “nuclear button” to allies or even Brussels. The decision to launch a nuclear attack “has always remained and will remain” in his hands, he told France in a national speech.

The United Kingdom military has been “very active to increase what is called the NATO nuclear dissuasion IQ,” said Lukasz Kulesa, director of the UK -based Think Tank Tank Tank Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Program, “ensuring that all allies are aware and understand the grammar of nuclear dissuasion.”

This means that if Macron’s proposal would come true, “France would not be entering a totally unknown field. These are countries that have been covered for wide nuclear dissuasion for decades,” CNN Heather Williams, director of the project on nuclear issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

However, it is essential to point out that the US did not say they will remove their commitment to protect NATO allies, she stressed.

This week, an American nuclear bomber flew over the Stockholm Center to mark the first anniversary of Sweden’s adhesion to NATO – a highly symbolic choice.

However, a February report from the Federation of American Scientists has pointed to “increasing tests of three years of documentation and observations” indicating that the US is preparing to redistribute nuclear warheads for its main UK air base for the first time in over 15 years. CNN contacted the US Department of Defense for comments.

Such a measure can signal the seriousness with which Washington faces increased tension in Europe.

Moscow

Megaton by Megaton, Europe’s arsenal does not compare to Moscow.

Reinforcing Europe’s nuclear arsenal would be a “issue of years, if not decades”, investment and development, according to Rusi Kulesa.

But the dissuasive is not just a matter of the number of missiles; Demonstrating the operational credibility of Europe’s nuclear forces is also essential.

A more cohesive cooperation with the allies around nuclear forces would be a strong impulse to deterrent, Kulesa said. This could imply the air-to-air refueling of allies in support of the French bombers or anti-submarine war abilities to protect the maneuvers of British or French nuclear submarines.

Given the shrinking investment in the British military over decades, questions about the deterrent and nuclear weapons of Britain have been raised, particularly given their dependence on a US supply chain.

Over the past eight years, the United Kingdom has publicly recognized two failed nuclear missile tests, one in the waters of Florida, when simulated missiles have not fired as planned.

British Prime Minister Keir Strmer promised last month what the government described as “the largest investment in defense expenses since the Cold War” in an increasingly dangerous world.

Other non -nuclear European allies are increasing their spending on conventional weapons – and this also says, analysts say.

Fundamentally, “nuclear weapons are not a magical instrument,” Kulesa said.

Any true dissuasion to Russia will need conventional and nuclear forces, he said, and under Trump, “the question is whether one can count on American commitment and involvement.”