Nato is said to be committed to the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where latent tensions have been boiling in the hands of Milorad Dodik (pictured), separatist near Putin. “Russia is causing a bullshit crisis to facilitate its negotiating position on Ukraine”
Zijad Bećirović has no doubt or shame when describing what is going on in Balkans, specifically in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the middle of 2025. “The message to the international community is clear,” says the director of the International Institute of Middle East Studies and Balkans (IFimes) to CNN Portugal. “Stop the new Karadzic -!”
Thirty years after the end of the Bosnian War, 17 since Serbian leader Radovan Karadzic was sentenced to life imprisonment for genocide and crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court for former Jugoslavia (TPI-J), the international community is attentive-to start with the NATO, whose secretary general, Mark Rutte, this week the alliance of the “territor” Bosnia.
Faced with journalists from around the world, the spokesman for the UN Secretary-General admitted days later “concern” with “recent events” in the country. “We appeal to all political leaders who fully support and facilitate the work of state institutions in order to consolidate peace and ensure stability throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina,” said Stéphane Dujaric in an email sent to newsrooms. “We have urged all relevant interveners to prove containment, to abstain from divisionist discourses and actions, and instead to strive for constructive dialogue and cooperation.”
The tensions in Bosnia are growing these days, but they are not now. To understand what’s going on, you have to travel until 1991, when the then Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic created the so-called ‘joint criminal company’ (JCE) to create a “ethnically clean” Serbian state, just as TPI-J would eventually complete the next decade.
“At that time, Milorad Dodik was also part of the plan and was a signatory to the January 9 statement [de 1992]When the Srpska Republic was created, ”says Zijad Bećirović, who has no doubt: Dodik is still performing the conceived and implemented JCE by Milosevic, under which millions of people were killed and expelled.
“We can talk about the same project,” he says. But the times, these, are not the same. “Rutte also stated that this is not 1992. This ‘security emptiness’ is an attempt to secession by Milorad Dodik. The message was clearly sent that the NATO would react and would not allow war, because the secession of Bosnia and Herzegovina means only one thing – a new war. And as we know, World War I began in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We have to be very careful with the situation in this country. ”
In 2019, the TPI-J confirmed the convictions of Serbian political leader Radovan Karadzic and his military chief Ratko Mladic, genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the 1990s, including the Srebranica Muslim Bosnian massacre, remembered in the memorial of this image. MARKO DROBNJAKOVIC/AP
Safety empty
Between Rutte’s visit to Sarajevo and the statement from Dujaric from New York, in another threshold of the tensions, the Bosnian prosecutor ordered the detention of Dodik and two his advisors for which he considered a “attack on the constitutional order” of a country divided into two autonomous entities since the signature of Dayton’s 1995 agreements, which ended the war.
The order came after the leader of the Republic Srpska, one of these two entities, ignored two calls for interrogation, along with Radovan Viskovic, his Prime Minister, and Nenad Stevandic, President of Parliament. This, in turn, happened after the constitutional court of Bosnia suspended the legislation signed by Dodik to reject the authority of the Federal Police and the Bosnian Judicial Power in RS.
As Adnan Cerimagic, senior analyst for Western Balcans of the European Stability Initiative (ESI), this legislation “is part of Dodik’s widest effort to weaken the central authority and avoid the potential consequences of the ongoing judicial process” – a process that, two weeks ago, saw a state -owned court in Sarajevo condemning the leader of the Bosnia Serbian and a year of prison and prison of political life for six years.
The sentence emerged in response to Dodik’s attempts to circumvent legal proceedings established under the fragile structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina since the end of the war 30 years ago, namely under Dayton’s agreements that are supervised by German Christian Schmidt, the high international representative in the country, which Dodik also.
Invoking a “serious political and security crisis,” Zijad Bećirović stresses Nato’s importance to avoid the escalation of the conflict. “It is important for NATO to send troops to the district of Brcko, as this territory is under international supervision and divides RS into two parts – this is crucial,” says the director of IFimes, who also refers to the US “life role” to ensure safety in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region.
“The role of the US is irreplaceable,” he stresses. “The US protects the agreements of Dayton and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The destroyers of Bosnia and Herzegovina deposited their hopes in the new US administration and began to destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina – and here we should not forget the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZBIH) and Dragan Covic, which, in cooperation with Dodik, subtly destroys Bosnia and Herzegovina. ”
With Dodik’s expectations regarding the new Trump administration to go out, at least for now, it is “important to ensure a peaceful transition from power with the departure of Dodik,” argues Bećirović, as well as “alerting countries in the region, especially Serbia and Croatia”-the second a full-right Member State of the European Union (EU) since 2013, the first still candidate for adhesion, in a process that continues in waters of waters Cod given the non-knowledge of the state of Kosovo, signs of democratic setback and the alignment of foreign policy with Russia.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte (second left), Sarajevo on March 10, was moved to ensure the protection of the covenant to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Armin Durgut/AP
Busy “to deal with yourself”
In a report released in May, in the face of strong signs of separatism by Dodik and his close allies, the International Crisis Group already installing the EU helping to lock the fragmentation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, saying that the block should coordinate with the US. But that was in May, before Donald Trump was reelected US president and sent signs that he intends to abdicate longtime alliances, namely with Europeans, while maintaining something relaxed in relation to Russia by Vladimir Putin.
With Ukraine rankedly invaded by Russian troops for the fourth consecutive year, there are several analysts who consider that the situation in Bosnia is just one of a list of crises that are being explored by Kremlin in the context of the current railroad with the EU. “Russia is provoking a bullshit crisis to facilitate its negotiating position on Ukraine,” says Zijad Bećirović.
This is, by the way, “the way Russia acts around the world,” says the expert. “Dodik is a Russian representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Russia has a hair presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, ”says the expert. “We have a pro-Putin government in the Srpska Republic, but also at Bosnia and Herzegovina-the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina is under pro-Putin influence.”
Without mentions to Russia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned a week ago that Dodik’s actions threaten Bosnia’s safety and stability, appealing to regional partners who join to “repel this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.”
Asked about the US position to the rudder of Trump, the director of IFimes points out that “for now, fortunately, the new administration is criticizing Dodik and threatening to intervene”, keeping the leader of the sewn Bosnians and their associates on the “blacklist” of people who represent threats to US national security, “which is the basis for US intervention.” And, “of course, we also have Dayton’s peace agreements, whose author and guarantees are the US – under whose terms they commit to ensuring lasting peace and functional state in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he adds.
With International Military Forces (Euforbih) parked in the country, mostly from NATO member countries, “the action of the American administration and its allies is facilitated” if there is a need to intervene. This mission, however, announced the EU delegation in Bosnia in response to Dodik’s latest actions, will be “temporarily increased.”
The same delegation stressed that all decisions made by the Bosnian Constitutional Court, including provisional measures that may still be subject to appeal, must be respected by all parties involved. The problem, says Zijad Bećirović, is that, at this moment, besides being busy “dealing with himself”, the EU “is repeating the same mistake as in the late 1990s, when it left Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Milosevic regime and the Serbian army.”
“The EU is afraid of the Russian Federation and, at the same time, is not sure that the new US administration supports the NATO, and without American protection, it is vulnerable,” says the expert, giving as an example the fact that Serbia, “who declared neutrality,” “almost the same number of tanks as Germany” when Germany “is almost eight times in terms of population.”
“The EU expects the US to solve the problems of the EU and the Balkans, and this has happened since the 1990s to this day. This is the biggest mistake. But this time, if the conflict bursts, the whole EU will be dragged to the war.”
