Effects of Donald Trump’s trade war – which is never mentioned in the organization’s interim report.
A OECD Review in low the forecasts of economic growth due to the effect that Commercial War triggered by the US President, Donald Trump, It’s already having.
In the interim of perspectives, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) makes a clear appeal to the US President-although without directly appointing him – so that Decrease commercial tensions and tariffs that has already imposed and makes its policies more predictable, in the good of the global economy.
In the assumption of the measures that Trump has already officialized, the Mexico will be the greatest harmedwith a recession from 2025 and a contraction of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.3%, ie, 2.5 percentage points than the OECD had expected in December.
Next year, Mexico will again be the only country of the G20 (group of the most developed and emerging countries) where the activity will fall, 0.6%, ie less percentage points than expected only three months ago.
O Canada will also be very badwith a weak increase in activity, of 0.7%, both in 2025 and 2026, which results from a correction of the prospects of 1.3 points each year.
The reason for the dizzying drop of those who have so far been the main US trading partners under the North America Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC) lies in the strong ties with the United States.
Os United States will not escape the shock And its GDP will have a remarkable slowdown, from a growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% this year (two tenths of percentage point than estimated in December) and 1.6% in 2026 (less five tenths of percentage point).
The OECD insists that these three economies would gain with the reversal of tariff climbing and with the return to the T-MEC rules, namely Mexico.
Although it acknowledges that for the United States, the improvement would be slightly, namely a tenth percentage point more growth in 2026 to 1.7%.
Europa
The same document has a 1% climb of GDP in the eurozone in 2025; It is a three -tenth cut compared to the end of last year. For 2026 expectations also lower three tenths: growth of 1.2%. This with an acceleration of 0.7% in 2024.
While the Germany, a Italy and France summer your expectations corrected down, the Spain will be the only one of the main partners in the euro zone to counteract this trendwith GDP growth twice as much as these three countries, both in 2025 (2.6%) and 2026 (2.1%).
About two weeks ago, the European Central Bank It also lowered growth estimates to the eurozone: 0.9% to 2025, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points.
As for the great economies emerging, growth in general will slow this year and next, and this movement is symbolized by the largest of all, the China, which will rise from 5% in 2024 to 4.8% in 2025 (another tenth of what the OECD predicted in December) and to 4.4% in 2026 (same as three months ago).
The OECD is aware of, which has threatened to impose more tariffs on the various business partners and, in particular, the Europeans and, even without directly naming it, stresses that “the current high level of geopolitical and political uncertainty puts significant risks to projections.”
To illustrate this, it made a simulation in which bilateral tariffs would increase another 10 percentage points.
The consequence would be a drop in world production of about 0.3%compared to the reference to the end of three years, which would be again particularly strong for Mexico (-1.3%), but also very significant for the United States (0.7%) and less significant for Japan (about -0.4%), for the eurozone (less than -0.2%) and, above all, for China (-0.1%), the large rival of Washington.
