The strong has generated controversy. In addition to the president himself, many as the main cause. Theme that dominates the public agenda at the moment. When the fault is attributed by the first agent of the nation to the “middlemen,” it means that it has already crossed Rubicão and risks radicalizing its agenda.
Felipe Nunes and Thomas Traumann identified conjunctural and structural factors of the fall of presidential approval. Among the first, food inflation due to climate issues, dollar appreciation, among others. Among the structural factors, a government whose only agenda is “to redo what worked in Lula 1 and 2 mandates, and that only delivers what is already known,” and “does not generate the consequent gratitude of economic vote.”
But does the main paradox remain without explanation why, despite favorable indices – in employment, income, IPCA -, popularity plummets? Yes, here food inflation is a central variable, but the sky is not brigadeiro. What is absent from the analysis is the rate of. By brutally hindering the credit, it is a source of dissatisfaction of low and medium -income consumers, and impacts one is no wonder that the president’s political attack against Bacen began even before inauguration. The outsourcing of guilt was the anticipation of the effects of spending expansion of around R $ 150 billion still in the transition of government.
The persecuted strategy has been malicious to the population seeking to achieve: the low -income segments. The earnings of credit is not perceived as BACEN’s action (unknown entity of the population). And they had an effect on the contrary to the persecuted, for generating wide economic uncertainty and undermining government credibility. Tax expansion created employment and income in the short term but accelerated the recrudation of inflation.
Another absent factor of the analysis is the municipalities of October. The bad performance of – which only elected 252 prefectures AFF 517 of the PL – in fact points to a political “decalcification”. The distribution of local investments by Centrão ensured its hegemony. However, the most important thing is that the claim had a multiplicative effect on the perception of Lula’s political vulnerability – the great absent from elections – and the PT.
The president’s absence in domestic policy was a strategic choice by which the president sought to be a protagonist on the international agenda, on the climate agenda and the fight against poverty, while delegating domestic policy to a group of former governors. The strategy wrecked. The electoral context enhanced the perception of malogue. Health and age issues
In the age group of the electorate between 25 and 34 there was the largest percentage drop (39%!) In the approval of the government, which fell 9 percentage points (from 23 to 14) (). The government is approved only by 1 in 7 respondents. Slightly smaller percentages (36%) are in the 35 to 44 ranges, and 16 to 24. These ranges concentrate 58% of the population.
Lula’s last card to counteract this picture may be the radicalization of the agenda.
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