B-61
The country still has US bombs, but looks for new partners after Trump questioned the NATO arsenal that protects today’s Europe. The attention is now returning to France and the United Kingdom.
Germany left Emmanuel Macron waiting for a while. On several occasions, the French President wanted to talk about an offer of nuclear weapons from France for nuclear deterrent in Europe. Until very recently, the idea has always been rejected.
But everything is changing. The new German conservative leader, who is expected to take command of the German government in the coming weeks, is ready for dialogue. The situation has changed dramatically at Donald Trump’s threats to deny US military protection to its European NATO allies.
USA have nuclear weapons parked in Germany
For decades, Germany has lived under the protection of the American nuclear shield. There 20 nuclear pumps parked in a Bundeswehr air base (German Armed Forces) in Büchel, in the state of the palatine Rhine. Only the US President has the code to trigger them.
However, in case of emergency, it would fit the Bundeswehr fighters use them to bombar targets. This joint coordination of nuclear deterrent with Americans is what the native nicknamed “Nuclear participation”and also applies to other European countries.
Climate is changing
The Treaty on the definitive regulation regarding Germany (or treated two-quarter), the peace agreement signed in 1990 after German reunification, prohibits Germany to have its own nuclear weapons.
According to two opinion polls held in early March by the Forsa and Civey institutes, the percentage of German -favorable Germans in Germany’s nuclear weaponry is 31% and 38%, respectively.
The support, although still a minority, has grown last year, but it is unlikely that such changes in public opinion influence defense policies. And anyway, it is not known if Germany today is able to manufacture its own nuclear weapons.
In early March, wrote that Germany receives small amounts of uranium For a non -military reactor used by researchers from the Technical University of Munich. But the same newspaper states that although the country may have the scientific and industrial base necessary for the development of weapons, I would still need foreign helpwhich could not ask or receive as a member of the Treaty of Non -Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (TNP).
Merz rejects these speculation. Germany “cannot and should not have its own nuclear weapons,” the DPA news agency told March 9: the country “expressly resigned to the possession of nuclear weapons, and will continue.” The chancellor wants to discuss nuclear dissuasion in Europe with France e United Kingdomtwo nuclear powers. In Paris, the door was already open.
There are only two nuclear powers from Europe
France and the United Kingdom are the only two European countries that have nuclear weapons – and only France is part of the European Union. Straighter cooperation would make sense, but there are some obstacles.
As British nuclear forces are closely linked to the US and would be available to NATO in case of conflict. The situation is different in France, which greatly values the independence of their nuclear forces, which are not subordinate to the NATO joint command structures.
Security experts do not expect the US to remove their nuclear weapons from Europe in the near future.
“I don’t think this is an imminent scenario, because NATO and Nuclear Sharing are of great strategic importance for the USfor several reasons, ”says Sascha Hach of the Frankfurt Peace Research Institute (Prif):“ But one cannot discard [que isso venha a acontecer]”.
One of these strategic advantages is the possibility of reacting in a scenario of Russian aggression to Europe. But even if American bombs are on the European continent, the seed of the doubt that Trump planted is already undermining the credibility of the American nuclear dissuasion.
There are also doubts about the effectiveness of a nuclear shield. Would it be enough to discourage an attack from Russia, which has a nuclear arsenal of over 5.5 thousand bombs?
How France could cooperate with Germany
The French have 290 nuclear pumps that can be fired by submarines or rafale fighters. The country states that its nuclear forces also reinforce Europe’s safety by dissuading possible opponents.
But what would this cooperation look like? Nuclear weapon strategic planning information is highly sensitive. France has decades of experience in this area, something that Germany, due to World War II, does not have.
Joint exercises between the German and French air forces are a possibilityaccording to Camille Grand of the European Council of Foreign Affairs (ECFR), which could include the landing of French jets Rafale in Germany. But the expert rules out that the parking of French nuclear fighters or other nuclear infrastructure in German territory, as speculated in some media, is in the plans.
“It is a mistake to suppose that the French nuclear guarantees would be similar to US nuclear guarantees,” he says. The French government has always made it clear that it will not give up control over the decision to use nuclear weapons or not.
And the weapons of the United Kingdom?
As in France, the UK’s nuclear forces are strongly oriented to national defense. The country is the only one that has only one type of nuclear weaponry. Its deterrent system is fully based on the sea and consists of Four Nuclear Submarines parked on the west coast of Scotland.
Hach considers that a stronger strategic partnership or a “political statement that French and British nuclear arsenals would also be used to defend European territory in an emergency.”
“But I find it unrealistic to expect the nuclear forces of France and the United Kingdom to develop to adapt specifically to European defense,” he says.
It’s not just a matter of bombs
Merz emphasizes that it is not about replacing, but of complementing US nuclear weapons. That the US is currently considered irreplaceable in NATO has not only to do with the size of its arsenal, but also with specific skills that only Americans haveas direct contacts with Russian command positions and warning systems against ballistic missiles. All of this helps to avoid unwanted climbing in a conflict.
“When we in Europe now discuss what to do without the US, we always focus on whether we have enough bombs or not,” criticizes Hach. People forget that There are other important security mechanisms that Europe could lose without the USlike direct military contact with opponents, it recalls: “It is in the interest of Europe to build similar structures and mechanisms on which we have control.”
