The House of Representatives budget consultancy (Conof) released, on Sunday (16), a preliminary estimate by pointing out a primary deficit of $ 31.7 billion for the federal government in February. This deficit results from the difference between net revenues, which, by Conof calculations, should add $ 142.3 billion, and total expenses, which would be $ 174 billion.
According to the analysis, total revenue should grow 1.3% in real terms compared to February 2024, while total expenses should be 13% lower than in the same month last year. This fall was explained by.
Without this extraordinary payment, the consultancy estimates that the expense would have increased 1.8% in real terms.
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“The growth of expenses would be potentially higher if the budget of 2025 was already approved, allowing the payment of salary adjustments and the resumption of the regular schedule of discretion execution execution,” says an excerpt from the report.
Revenue Analysis
Administered revenues, which include taxes and social contributions, are expected to increase from R $ 126.4 billion in February 2024 to R $ 127.9 billion last month, according to the study. Net pension collection should also rise from R $ 50.3 billion to R $ 53.6 billion, an increase of 6.5% in real terms.
On the other hand, non -administered revenues should fall from 10.3% in real terms, from R $ 22.2 billion in February 2024 to R $ 20.0 billion the following month, by Conof’s accounts.
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The report also highlights a frustration in the collection in relation to the forecasts of the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA), as well as the increase in social security benefits, indicating the need to review the initially planned numbers.
Increase in expenses
Among the expenses that should be increased, they stand out:
- Continued Benefits (BPC)which grew 12.3%, reaching R $ 10.3 billion;
- Social security benefitswhich increased by 2.3%, totaling R $ 77.1 billion;
- Allowance and unemployment insurancewhich rose 5.6%, totaling R $ 7.9 billion in the month.
According to the consultancy, the expenses of the Executive Branch subject to financial programming, which include discretionary and mandatory expenses with flow control, must remain constant.
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Increased tax collection
Among the taxes that should have growth in the collection, stand out:
- Import taxfrom R $ 5 billion in February 2024 to R $ 7.1 billion last month;
- Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI)from R $ 5.7 billion to R $ 7.2 billion;
- Income taxwith a drop from R $ 59.9 billion to R $ 57.6 billion;
- Tax on Financial Operations (IOF)with an increase of R $ 5.5 billion to R $ 6.2 billion;
- Cofinswith a rise from R $ 27.1 billion to R $ 27.3 billion;
- PAIwith a slight fall, from R $ 8.4 billion to R $ 7.9 billion;
- Social Contribution on Net Income (CSLL)with a reduction of R $ 12.5 billion to R $ 10.5 billion;
- Contribution of Intervention in the Economic Domain (CIDE) – Fuelswith advance from R $ 300 million to R $ 400 million.
