The Russians are currently not a threat to Europeans, ”says Vima. RogerEmeritus Professor of Political Science in MIT in USA.
Is Europe facing an existential issue, its safety?
“Yes. The problem with the EU is that, unlike the US, Russia or, it is not a single factor. There will be differences between its powerful poles – especially France over Germany – about how fast and how far Europe will be removed from the US. It will take some time to reach a common approach. There will be bargains for funding and there will also be a very crucial question: Should the Germans develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent to the US withdrawal? In the short term, Europeans must, first of all, be able to help the Ukrainians maintain their defense. “
How will this be achieved?
“Ammunition, heavy equipment transfers to the forefront and information – spying are the areas where the US dominates and must be quickly replaced by Europeans. Peace will only be achieved in Ukraine if the Ukrainians themselves can fight for a long time. Europeans can help, but the main factor must be the Ukrainians, who have developed technologies and defense industry that enable them to fight in a war dominated by defense.
In my view, the Russians are currently not a threat to Europeans. They have been drained from three years of war just to acquire 20% of Ukrainian land. They can attack agriculture, but they are unable to attack the Baltic states, which would make Poland and others fight the Russians. However, there are certainly long -term issues and threats that Europeans will need to face. For these long -term threats, NATO will play less and less role. Most important here, I think, is that the US will increasingly downgrade any interpretation of Article 5 of NATO, which entails an automatic military response to an attack on any NATO member. This security guarantee will be set aside. “
What does the course of the US and Russia negotiations show?
“It indicates that at least two of the three Russian demands will probably be incorporated into a peace agreement. The first is no security guarantee from the second recognition of Russian control in the areas occupied by Russia. The third demand, to reduce Ukraine’s military power, will be played. “
What do you think Putin is seeking to normalize relationships with Trump?
“The Russian president seeks to redefine the European Security Framework. He would long for an elite agreement, in the style of Yalta, where people would divide into bullets of influence. Russian, American and neutral. And, if not, that of neutral countries. “
Is Europe now less “friendly” than Russia?
“Europe is a rather negligible amount for Trump, who wants to humiliate Europeans. His desire is to bring them to the “nothing”.
