The World Meteorological Organization () presents its report on the world climate state of 2024, where it reviews all indicators of a climate crisis that is felt on the entire planet. Its general secretary, Celeste Saulo (Buenos Aires, 60 years), reviews in this videoconference interview the main results of this study, which highlights that 2024 was the warmest year recorded so far. But, in addition, the report reviews the growing impacts that global warming is having on the planet. In this context in which evidences multiply, denialist populism advances in the world of characters such as Donald Trump or Javier Milei.
Ask. and it was also a record year in terms of concentration in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. Is it possible to separate both issues?
Answer. Science has clearly shown us that greenhouse gases are the great responsible for the global warming we are seeing. And there is precise and robust documentation in this regard: unfortunately, it is the human action that causes this warming.
P. However, there are voices that still disconnect both issues.
R. Yes, but as an organization of scientific and technological basis, OMM is based on data, scientific evidence and works published worldwide. The IPCC, which is the one that makes the evaluations ,. There can always be dissident voices, but they are isolated voices. The scientific consensus is clear and we as an organization are placed on the side of the scientific consensus.
P. That is, it is not something political, but what is shown in this report they present.
R. Yes, totally. Science has provided us with many instruments for a better life, to better understand the planet where we live. And in this particular case, science is warning us about what is happening with the weather from these monitoring that we coordinate globally, but that countries carry out. This is something that must be highlighted: it is data from the countries, they are data generated by the meteorological and hydrological services of all countries that are used to do this evaluation.
P. Is the 2024 heat record an exception or is part of a trend?
R. Unfortunately, it is a trend. Since the sixties to this part the trend is clearly to generate temperature anomalies, which are growing. In our report we highlight that in the last ten years all were individually relative temperature.
P. But the report also points out some factors that have been able to influence the extraordinary of 2023 and 2024 in addition to greenhouse gases, which are the main heating element.
R. Exactly, we always talk about climatic variability because it is a reality and it is something that OMM works a lot too. One of the great forcing of climatic variability is the phenomenon of The child And, of course, when The child Higher temperatures are usually registered, mainly in the northern hemisphere.
P. And this 2025 can mark another record without the presence of The child?
R. In principle, experts point out that a record should not be expected, but the system is immersed in a heating trend. In any case, records are like attention calls, they are like mermaids. The trend is the background concern, which is important to highlight. I think 2024 works like a siren.
P. Because climate change is much more than medium temperature records, right?
R. Of course, and we point it out in our report. There are many indicators and all of them, absolutely all indicators, are worrisome. Those who mark the state of the oceans, either by the height of the sea level as by the heat content in the sea, or as the acidification of the water. Or the melting of the glaciers, such as the surface of the ice in the Arctic and in the Antarctic. Or the amount of extreme events … we are measuring many indicators and is not an isolated event, because all point in the same direction and respond to the same physical phenomenon, which is that of heating, the sustained warming caused by greenhouse gases.
P. Look where you look, climate change shows your face.
R. Exactly. We also know that there are indicators that are more worrying than others, such as the case of the increase in sea level for small island states. Or as the acidification of the oceans when we talk about ecosystems. Or like heat waves when we talk about health.
P. Are we at the moment when the most clear are the signs of climate change?
R. Completely. It is a bit difficult to explain to anyone what an anomaly of 1.55 degrees of temperature above the pre -industrial levels means. Most will say: what is that? That is why in our report the extreme events are documented. That is what people feel. That is experienced by less developed and more developed countries, although with different consequences due to the capacity for response and recovery. What is sought in the report is to relate a slightly abstract variable with concrete facts of reality that absolutely affected the entire planet. There is not a single place on the planet, no continent, where you can say here nothing happened. From Antarctica to North America, even in the small island states in the Pacific … absolutely all were impacted by an extreme extraordinary event for what their official records are.
P. Doesn’t it seem difficult to understand that in this context there is a advance of denial populism in the world?
R. Yes, the reality is that it is difficult to understand. But it doesn’t touch OMM to get into that field. He has to show the evidence, and that is the role we will continue to assume and that has historically assumed.
P. Emphasize that the data comes from countries, from national weather services. Do you worry that with Trump’s return to the White House there can be a cut of information from federal agencies to OMM?
P. I hope that does not happen. The OMM is commemorating this year the 75 years within the UN system, but we have 152 years as an organization. And how has something survived 152 years? For the understanding of countries of the importance of sharing weather data. Because time and weather do not understand geographical borders. The phenomena associated with air circulation move. And there was a very early understanding, 152 years ago, that if the information was not shared it was a disadvantage for the countries. For example, I come from Argentina, and a cold front that begins affecting Chile, at some point it will affect Argentina, and quickly to Uruguay, and will arrive in Brazil. And if there is no data exchange system one is very exposed and really without the possibilities of being able to prevent, protect the population and take the actions. The idea of exchange information is very old, and survived all kinds of global situations and crises.
P. President Javier Milei, in addition to being skeptical regarding climate change, withdrew Argentina’s delegation at the last climate summit. What opinion does that step deserve?
R. They are sovereign decisions of the country that I hope can be reflected in the light of what happens. For example, Argentina suffered very little terrible floods in the city of Bahía Blanca, 16 people died. It is collected in the studies of Argentine colleagues and the entire world that some sectors of the center and eastern Argentina are more vulnerable to climate change. And this is registered there. I hope the information arrives at the levels that has to arrive so that the country is better prepared. The countries that best prepare will be those that have the possibility of even finding opportunities in a changing climate. And denying the possibility of preparing seems to me that it does not help.
P. In 2024 the barrier of 1.5 degrees of heating with respect to the pre -industrial level was exceeded for the first time. Can we consider that the Paris agreement has been breached?
P. No, because the Paris Agreement takes as a average temperature of 20 years. A year does not make the average of 20. But what it does is turn the sirens in a trend that moves up irreversibly.
P. With what messages should the society of the world climate status of 2024 be left?
R. I think we have to keep the idea that the indicators are alarming, because all of them consisting mark an aggravation; either of the emission of greenhouse gases, of the melting of glaciers, temperature increase, the amount of extreme events. But, in addition, all those indicators of climate physics translate into impacts on people, on societies. This translation on impacts has to do with health, food security, access to water, all kinds of problems related to development and well -being. We have to make that connection between what happens in a physical system such as climate, and what happens to us as individuals who live in a globalized society.
