The perception of the financial market about the Brazilian economy follows pessimistic, according to the latest genius survey/Quaest released on Wednesday (19). According to the survey, 93% of financial agents interviewed believe that the country’s economic policy is in the wrong direction. In addition,, compared to 24% registered in the last edition of the survey, conducted in December 2024.
The survey also points out that 83% of respondents expect a worsening in the economy in the next 12 months. Only 4% believe in improvement, while 13% say the scenario should remain the same.
The survey was conducted between March 12 and 17 with 106 investment funds located in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Respondents include managers, economists, analysts and financial market decision makers. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points for more or less.
Continues after advertising
See Summary:
- 93% believe that the country’s economy is in the wrong direction;
- 83% expect the economic situation to get worse in the next 12 months;
- 58% consider that Brazil is at risk of recession in 2025;
- 82% believe that inflation will be higher than in 2024.
Risk of recession and discharge of inflation worry
The survey also revealed that 58% of consulted managers and economists consider that Brazil runs the risk of recession. In addition, 82% expect inflation to terminate 2025 at a level higher than 2024, while 16% believe it will be stable and only 2% predict a drop in price index.
Regarding monetary policy, most financial agents (87%) bet that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will increase the Selic rate by 1 percentage point at the next meeting. Another 5% foresee a lower adjustment of 0.5 points, while only 2% believe in maintenance of interest at the current level of 13.25% per year.
Continues after advertising
Lula and Haddad in the focus of criticism
The negative assessment of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains high among market agents, with 88% considering his government bad or terrible. Among the factors that contributed to this perception, the most cited were the increase in food prices (64%), misconceptions in the conduct of economic policy (56%) and the increase in tax burden (41%).
Haddad, who until the end of 2024 still had a certain support of the market, saw his approval plummeted. Now, only 10% of respondents evaluate their performance positively, against 41% in the last survey. For 85% of financial agents, the minister’s influence within the Lula administration has decreased in recent months.
Central Bank President Gabriel Galipolo was the only one to receive a relatively favorable assessment. For 45% of respondents, their performance has been positive, while 41% consider their management regular and 8% classify it as negative.
