Analysis || War time diplomacy is not for everyone: Putin has long been in this, and while hundreds of people die, he put Trump discussing hockey games. The Russian President won without even trying
The Russian art to say no
Analysis of Nick Paton Walsh, CNN
A “no” is not a “yes” when it is a “maybe”, a “probably not” or a “just if”.
This is the painfully predictable lesson of the first real foray of Trump administration in war -time diplomacy with Kremlin. They were hopelessly deceived.
The Trump administration called for a 30 -day ceasefire throughout the front line – without conditions. This Tuesday got – after a week of theatrical waiting and hundreds of lost lives – a relatively small prisoners exchange, hockey games, more conversations and – according to Kremlin’s reading – a mutual one -month break in attacks on “energy infrastructure.”
This last sentence is where an easily preventable technical mine begins. According to a post by US President Donald Trump, and another of his press officer Karoline Leavitt, the deal concerned “energy and infrastructure.” They are two sets of completely different ideas.
Russia says it will not attack Ukraine’s electric networks and gas supply, as it has been mercilessly in recent years, as Ukrainian winters have always been a risky dance with cold families and reserve energy sources. The White House, confusedly-in disagreement, typing error or translation nuance-has expanded this truce to potentially all parts of Ukraine that are considered infrastructure: bridges, perhaps key roads, or ports, or railways. He created conditions that are almost impossible to comply with the ruthless pace of Russia’s air attacks – which resumed Tuesday night. Resume every night.
It is possible that with the proximity of summer and the urgent need for Ukrainians to reduce warming, the fact that Moscow ceases attacks on energy infrastructure is a lower concession. However, for Kiev, the requirement that they stop attacking Russian energy infrastructures eliminates one of the most powerful forms of attack that Ukraine has. For months, Moscow used long -range drones and missiles to attack Russian refineries and pipelines, causing serious damage to Kremlin’s main fundraising instrument: exporting their hydrocarbons, especially to China and India. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was reported to the idea of a break, but said he still needed to know the “details.”
It is important to stress that the call has long announced between Trump and Vladimir Putin has produced almost nothing except the predictable fact that the Kremlin head feels that he can overcome his homologist effortlessly. The exchange of 175 prisoners and the return of 23 seriously injured Ukrainians is an importance agreement and smells of something already in preparation, given the frequency of similar exchanges in the past and the fact that it should happen as early as Wednesday.
In addition and the pause in the attacks (whatever the agreed break), Russia has used this one week delay and this call to stress that it wants all foreign aid and information sharing to be interrupted as part of an agreement and a series of “working groups” over Ukraine and Russia-eu relations be created. “Working Groups” is a Russian diplomatic euphemism for fervent disinterest. Putin evidenced him by apparently immediately executing a break in the attacks on energy, but leaving everything he didn’t want to do for another series of meetings at an indefinite height. Putin seems to be determined to return to the idea that all help to Ukraine should be suspended, something Trump has done once for about a week. The subject will be addressed again in the conversations.
Some of these technical traps were placed by the basic nature of Jeddah’s initial statement from the US and Ukraine. It was admirable but extremely simplistic, demanding an immediate stop of a month of all hostilities in a three -year wild war. The proposal did not take into account the time that such a measure would be put into practice, with the soldiers often isolated from their command and made no mention of those who would control their fulfillment.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that the “satellites” could provide all the necessary surveillance. It is almost certain that this is true, but as an idea, it presupposes that Moscow would be happy with the United States to analyze in detail the positions on the front line and to be the referee who violated what. A cynical could say that Jeddah’s proposal was designed to please the simplistic but desirable demand for Trump of immediate peace, but also to allow the usual and pedantic looking for gaps by Moscow to be entangled with techniques. And Putin immediately sought to stick the feet of the agreement in these abundant weeds.
Ultimately, Kremlin did not sought to discuss “nuances” – details, for example, about whether OSCE or UN would polish the front line – but instead offered as little concessions as possible without giving Trump a categorical “no”.
But it was a categorical “no” that Trump received. It is presented as a “partial ceasefire”, but this is simply the first phase of the renewal of Russia’s misleading diplomacy, which has been a decade for a decade. They agreed with a break in the attacks that – in large part, from now on – will harm Moscow’s bank balance. In fact, the initial and amateur confusion over what was agreed opened a pit in any future peace agreement enough for Putin to be able to pass another large -scale invasion. Didn’t both parties set aside their employees after the call to prepare an identical reading of what was agreed?
The Vaudeville Theater of the last month should not be comforted to think that war is suddenly walking to peace. Yes, the Trump administration spoke of peace in a way that no one has done so far in this war. But it was also able to confirm, in a nutshell, that Moscow seeks cracks of weakness and crosses them mercilessly with a tank.
Trump thought he could persuade, convince or be smarter than Putin. You haven’t been able to do any of this yet. He lost palpably in his first direct diplomatic confrontation. For millions of Ukrainians, Trump’s next choice defines his lives. Will you lose interest, exercise pressure or make concessions again? It is a dizzying perspective.
