Are elections in Madeira “crystal ball” for national legislatures?

Those who break an electoral cycle are punished in the following elections – and “the people devalue the ethical question.”

Once again, the PSD made “Bailinho” in Madeiraand without difficulty the early legislative elections – was only one deputy of the absolute majority. With the PS falling to the third political force, can the results of the archipelago tell us something about the national legislative elections that are there at the door?

There are those who say yes, there are those who say no.

“Madeira is not a parish council, There are 120 thousand people. It’s a real -time poll“, Says Henrique Raposo in the Renaissance:“ When a party breaks an electoral cycle, forcing the government to fall, it is punished in the following elections, ”and that is what will take place on May 18 on the continent, believes the analyst. PS and arrives (who lost a deputy, with 3) were punished for shaking political stability.

And recalls two cases: 2022, when the sprint fell by giving the absolute majority to the PS of António Costa; and the victorious Isaltino, who despite the controversial links to the alleged corruption has won several times in Oeiras.

“The people devalue the ethical question” “Something to take into account at a time when Luís Montenegro, on the continent, high scrutiny.”

The PS, a big loser of Sunday night, does not see any connection between the two elections. “When they lose they say there can be no national readings, but they get all flesh in the roast in the Madeira elections,” he says the same commentator.

The Socialist Secretary-General Pedro Nuno Santos took the defeat – but she “is from the Madeira PS. There is no way to ignore it ”, and refused to remove any omilation for early legislatures because it cannot be related to national policy: the“ relationship with national policy cannot be done (…) I cannot comment on the internal life of PS/Madeira ”.

António Costa Pinto, in conversation with RTP, agrees: the archipelagos increasingly gain their own political dynamics, says the teacher.

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, in turn, took advantage of the social democratic “scard” and has already expressed his desire that all this will be repeated on the continent, while Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa did not want to draw conclusions about these results at national level, less than two months for national elections, but explains what happened: “The Madeirans chose political stability.”

Only one deputy of the absolute majority, the PSD may come to collide with CDS-PP To obtain it, but the decision is up to the party’s representation in Madeira, guarantees CDS leader Nuno Melo.