Allies and opponents of the Bolsonaro clan evaluate, in reserved conversations, that the departure of the federal deputy (PL-SP) of Brazil, will have negative impacts on his party and his political group in 2026.
Both sides state that, outside the individual projection, the parliamentary’s self -exile, in his offensive against the Minister of the Supreme Court, creates a vacuum that gives room for right -wing candidates who have risen with pockets, but are not necessarily aligned with the interests of the PL.
However, these evaluations depend, according to deputies and listened leaders, on factors such as the time Eduardo will remain abroad, the role that it could play in the election of 2026 and the type of international aid it can, especially from the government, to oppose the government (PT).
The deputy may be licensed from the House, without remuneration, for four months. Without asylum granted by the US government, it can only remain six months in the country.
Eduardo was the second most voted deputy in the PL in the past elections, with 741 thousand votes. Parliamentarians of the subtitle state that most of the bench learned from the press about their decision to license from the mandate and stay in, announced on Tuesday (18).
There was resistance from the former president (PL), that not to remain in the United States.
Eduardo’s allies projected, so far, that he would compete for the Senate for the São Paulo PL, the São Paulo government or even the presidency, in place of his father. Inelegable until 2030 by decision of the TSE, for the accusation of trying to lead a coup at the end of 2022.
Now, the absence of the deputy can expand the chances of right-wing names that run away from the PL umbrella, such as federal deputy Ricardo Salles (Novo-SP), who aims at a place in the Senate, and the influencer Pablo Marçal, who negotiates to join União Brasil with an eye on the dispute to the São Paulo government.
PL parliamentarians, which has 92 chairs in the House, express fear of the acronym performance next year. In addition to the “Eduardo Risk”, the caption should not have Carla Zambelli (who is expected to remain ineligible and face trial in the STF for which he may lose his mandate), Captain Derrite (Secretary of Security in Sao Paulo who should go to the PP) and Salles himself, who exchanged the PL for the new last year.
These four voting handles together had more 2.5 million votes by 2022 and were responsible for the election of four more names for the subtitle. Eduardo’s presence in a majority election was considered vital to avoid shrinkage of the bench, in the evaluation of a parliamentarian of the acronym.
Justifying the departure, Eduardo said Temer by decision of Moraes – the deputy was the subject of a PT representation to the Supreme Court for Betrayal of the Fatherland, rejected after the announcement.
Although allies have made public statements of solidarity with the deputy, the backstage assessment is that the time to make such a decision was bad, amid defeats for pockets.
Bolsonaro’s demonstration by amnesty, held on Sunday (16) in Copacabana, had audiences below expected-30 thousand people, according to Datafolha, in view of the forecast of 1 million announced by the former president.
The amnesty project, and Eduardo lost strength by giving up the Foreign Relations Commission. In addition, the deputy’s decision was announced a week before the trial that can make Bolsonaro defendant by the coup plot.
To try to convince Eduardo to return to Brazil, Bolsonaro claimed that he could give an escape image in the face of the unfavorable scenario to the clan.
On the other hand, among family -loyal allies, Eduardo is expected to succeed in obtaining or even direct support from the Trump administration to the speech that pockets undergo political persecution and has been having curtailed rights.
One deputy recalls initiatives against Moraes by the US government, who questioned the minister’s decisions that hit the United States companies within the country. The parliamentarian cites a direct praise made by the Republican president to Eduardo in a conservative conference at the end of last month.
Among opponents, the assessment is that Eduardo’s attitude is a demonstration of despair of the clan in the face of the possibility of Bolsonaro’s arrest and the low adherence to Sunday act.
They understand that the persecution narrative is null by the fact that Eduardo’s passport was not seized. For them, the tendency is for the licensed deputy to lose space in the right field, with the political future depending on the success or failure of his incursion in the United States.
A member of the PT’s national board called the decision of Eduardo on marketing coup, claiming that the deputy will try to attribute to himself any gain with the Trump administration and trying to cling politically to the 2026 electoral dispute.
Left parliamentarians have already explored the episode to try to paint Eduardo as a inside out to work, who would have graduated from the mandate to walk abroad as a way of trying to weaken him before undecided voters.
“Are you going to live in Miami not to go to the session in the House? Will you be doing a live a day to say you have no freedom in Brazil? This is a shot in the foot. He can come and go from here when he wants,” says federal deputy Jilmar Tatto (PT-SP), national party communication secretary.
