Now that the European Commission has introduced its ambitious plan to “remedy Europe” to be “ready” in the face of Russia by 2030, blockages, doubts, repairs and contests are beginning to emerge – especially between the far right. However there is a country that made a decision that “deserves to be celebrated”: “Thank God, finally Germany woke up”
Europeans are taking the reins of their own security. But this is one of the few certainty of the moment in the face of a sea of uncertainty about the near and distant future in the face of growing Donald Trump US tensions and Vladimir Putin’s Russia – who continue to negotiate Ukraine’s future keeping the European continent at a distance. And then there is a problem within Europe itself.
“There are allies of Putin such as Hungary and Slovakia always block everything at European level, the first big question is how we will get everyone to align, for example, in terms of tax measures to increase defending spending on GDP,” says Julien Hoez, a geopolitical expert and editor of The French Display. “The second question,” says the French expert, “it’s like, in this ‘decisive moment’ for the EU, as Kaja Kallas said, we guarantee that we don’t stay here-that after these 800 billion we will continue to invest, continue to develop instruments and mechanisms and make them regular EU components.”
The defense plan authorizes Member States to activate a “national safeguard clause” that exempts the rules of the defense expenses with 650 billion euros-which, in theory, frees them from the tight budget rules of the bloc, in order to encourage them to invest in the sector over the next four years.
This same clause also foresees 150 billion euros on loans to be invested in joint weapons and military equipment purchases. The European Commission has set April 30 as the deadline for Member States to activate the clause-and there are already heavy countries that say they will not do so. “We are not going to activate the clause because we have no maneuver margin to do so,” said French finance minister Eric Lombard last week.
Highly indebted countries such as France, Italy, Greece or Spain cannot continue to contract indefinitely without the risk of firing interest rates – and that is why Julien Hoez considers, like other analysts, that “EuroBonds will be the next big question” around the implementation of the white book.
However renamed “Defense Bonds”, or “Defense Obligations”, the issuance of joint debt securities is an option that the Commission guarantees that it will not be on the European rearmament menu-but this does not mean that several Member States will not ask for it, like what was done to recover from Covid’s pandemic, where the money generated served to fund the recovery and resilience programs (PRR).
To be requested, the issue of joint debt issuance entails the usual challenge: the need for unanimity when not everyone is in agreement, says Hoez. “The Longeses don’t want EuroBonds, Slovakians don’t, and the Hungarians would kill this proposal at the time – even though Friedrich Merz [provável futuro chanceler da Alemanha, país historicamente contra esta opção] It seems to be more fond of the idea. ”
In a statement published during this week’s European Council, the largest party of the European Parliament has in the air the possibility of resorting to the issuance of debt securities for the defense, with the European Popular Party (PPE) to declare that “understands that the development of a credible and less dependent European defense industry requires additional financial instruments.”
“Given the existential nature of Europe’s defense challenges, this can be achieved, for example, through common debt instruments, if necessary, as long as they are clearly centered on the reinforcement of European defense, especially in areas where the threat is currently more serious,” says the same statement, drafted by the Prime Minister of Finland after consultations with other PPP leaders.
The document was not taken to debate at the summit of European leaders, but diplomats took the uncharaciability of the matter to be ignored at the meeting. As a source told the politician: “It would be a surprise if EuroBonds were not approached to the European Council.” (It’s not yet certain whether or not it has been, but more news should come over the coming weeks.)
“We can’t take them very seriously”
Still without the issuance of joint debt on the table, the issue of 150 billion in loans should prove bicuro in countries whose power coalitions are not aligned on the subject-case of the Giorgia Meloni government in Italy, or Dick Schoof, in the Netherlands, where the far-right parties claim that the benefits of the program rearmar to Europe are widely outdated for their damage to their damage to The national economies and the euro zone – claim that they will submerge the EU in more debt.
“These political forces had already said something like this regarding the response to the coronavirus pandemic, which really only contributes to not taking them very seriously,” says the editor of The French Dispatch. “The reality is that they will say this regardless of what we do, because in their perspective it is too European. Whatever the EU do – common debt, EuroBonds, whatever – there will be resistance because it is more step towards federalism. But the EU is more than able to deal with these issues.”
Under the current proposal, a total of 150 billion in loans with more favorable conditions will serve to finance weapons business that must be made with manufacturers within the EU/ESE or third countries with whom the block has security and defense agreements – which, at the outset, excludes the US from Trump, the United Kingdom, Israel and Turkey.
But, he points out Hoez, “there is an important caveat in the exclusion of these countries, which he says we cannot do business with companies based in these countries unless they sign pacts of defense and safety with the EU – and I believe that is currently under discussion in the United Kingdom and Canada.”
Conversations about this pact between London and Brussels have already begun, but are involved in demands for a wider deal that includes more controversial questions such as fishing rights and migration. “We are working on creating a defense and security partnership with the United Kingdom,” said Kaja Kallas, a European Union representative for foreign affairs to journalists. “I hope the Summit EU-joined in May can bring results.”
It defines that at least 65% of this money has to be spent in the EU, Norway and Ukraine, which means that the remnant can be invested in third countries that sign these pacts – in an “European buy” approach defended by France and other countries, whose importance cannot be underestimated.
“The truth is that this is a European structure, a European financing mechanism, financed by European taxpayers, and makes sense to limit our expenses outside the EU and finance our own companies,” argues Julien Hoez. “Now that we face a huge existential crisis, where we can get out of it poorer, weaker and more vulnerable, we have an obligation to ensure that we are not only developing a robust industry and defense economy, but also to create jobs, better salaries and tax revenues.
“Thank God, finally Germany woke up”
The EU leaders summit at the end of the week marked another confrontation between most Member States and Orbán Hungary, which is still misaligned with the other states regarding the immediate support to Ukraine – which deserves an exclusive chapter in the Commission’s white book. Similarly, Robert’s Slovakia was made clear, even before the European Council, that he is ready to veto more sanctions on Russia that can “endanger the process of peace conversations” Trump is leading.
In an opposite trend, and after decades of divestment in the sector and living under budget rules even tighter than those of the bloc, Germany approved this week a “historical” fiscal reform that will allow the country to exempt restrictions on defense -spending on defense above 1% of GDP. “Thank God, finally Germany woke up, we should celebrate,” says Julien Hoez about the importance of this step, after years of alerts from Paris for German US dependence.
With the change in the regime and the approval of this “expense bazook”, Berlin is preparing to be invested in part in his own weaponry industry-leading to the EU alerts regarding the potential “unfair competition” of Germany compared to smaller countries. But that, defends Julien Hoez, is to lose focus.
“You can’t ask these countries more able to reduce them to favor countries that don’t have them,” argues Hoez. “This is not necessarily a moment of justice, but the time to ensure that we have what we need to face potential invaders.” In the current context, “what the EU has to do is continue to develop the historical industries of countries such as Germany, France and Italy, which already have their military industrial complexes, and use the advantage that it gives us, giving simultaneously some support to the smaller member states to start producing [armas e equipamentos militares] also”.
While Friedrich Merz concludes negotiations to form government, France continues to move to strengthen his own defense sector, with the finance minister to announce on Thursday the creation of 500 euros in tranches-in what Julien Hoez says he is “the kind of thing we will see more and more in Europe.”
And, since, how feasible it is to talk about an EU as a military superpower, its declared and last goal? The geopolitics expert responds without ellipsis. “It can absolutely become military superpower, it has no doubt the geopolitical potential to change the world. The problem is that we have to realize it, make the necessary changes to the treaties to avoid blockages and implement everything we can and are in our reach. We have to do the hard work and it is up to current generations to do so.”
