Article originally in the Financial Times. Other articles .
When 7 October 2023 Hamas’s gunmen still stood out at the army bases and in the villages in the south of Israel, Itai packed his bag, kissed his wife and two little girls farewell and went to fight.
It became one of the approximately 300,000 Israeli midfielder mobilized at the beginning of the war who served 200 days during three Gaza combat tours-others are expected this year-as part of a land campaign on several fronts in southern Lebanon, Syria and on the occupied western bank.
“They told us to prepare for five years of intensive fighting,” said his wife Chen Arbel, who helped establish the non -profit forum of the wives of the midfielder to provide support for tens of thousands of families like her. (This family, like all respondents of midfielder, did not wish to mention their surname).
The end of the war in sight
Since Israel has restored the offensive against Hamas, Ittai and thousands of other reservists of Israeli defensive forces – some of whom have been in uniform twice as long – they must now prepare for the possibility that they will immediately return to the war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the new commander of the Israeli defense forces Ejal Zamir threatened that if Hamas refuses to release other Israeli hostages, a new furious ground offensive will be followed by an air campaign in Gaza.
However, it is not clear how much of the Israeli armed forces will last. During its history, Israel has been led short and decisive wars to least burden the midfielder he calls for a regular army. The length of most campaigns is measured for days and weeks.
As the end of the war is in sight, defensive analysts and midfielders began to draw attention to the growing exhaustion of combat forces. Jobs, families and their lives are waiting for their return. The midfielders also point to hints of disillusionment. Netanyahu and his extreme right -wing cabinet excluded the end of the fighting despite the public pressure on the return of the remaining hostages detained by Hamas.
“For the first time [od začiatku vojny] It may happen that some midfielders will not enter service, ”said Amos Harel, a defense analyst of Haaretz, and the author of the book on the relations of civilians and the army.
The year 2025 will be the year of war
Zamir, a former tank commander with a face like steel, took over the management of the army only this month. However, as early as 2021, when he was a representative of the Chief of the General Staff of Israeli Defense Forces, he warned that Israel did not go to “smaller and more intelligent” combat forces dependent on technology, air forces and special units.
He claimed that the country would instead need “critical mass” forces for “heavy, long and multi -pront campaign”. He said earlier this month that “2025 will be the year of war”.
In Israel, most Jewish men and women are obliged to enlist at the army for two to three years at the age of 18. Then many of them continue in reserves. It is estimated that there are potentially 450,000 soldiers who complement the permanent army with approximately 170,000 soldiers. Before the current war, however, Chen said that “an agreement with the army was that the midfielder would serve 30 days a year”.
According to the Israeli defense forces, more than 800 soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the war and about six thousand were injured. Some analysts say that this number is higher if the mental health and post -traumatic stress disorders are taken into account.
What about ultra -orthodox Jews?
The conflict has required a number of victims in neighboring countries. According to local health authorities, more than 48,000 people were killed in Gaza, four thousand in Lebanon, and approximately a thousand people in the West Bank. These data include both civilians and fighters.
Israeli military officials say that another 10,000 soldiers, especially new armored and pedestrian brigades, are needed to better defend the Israeli borders and “unlimited” bumper zones in the neighboring area.
However, analysts warn that such changes in the organizational structure of the Israeli defense forces will require some time. Plans to extend the army will encounter a greater obstacle: the question of whether to call young ultra -orthodox (haredi) Jewish men.
Ultra -orthodox, which accounts for approximately 14 percent of the population, has been exempt from military service since the founding of Israel, but this policy has faced increasing resistance before 7 October. The Supreme Court described it as unconstitutional and the vast majority of the Jewish Israeli public demand that they also serve.
Less than half of the midfielder reports
Netanyahu, whose coalition depends on the Hredi allies, made it clear that his government does not intend to forcibly call ultra -orthodox. According to official data from more than 10,000 calls sent by Israeli defensive forces, only a few hundred men enlisted in the last year haredi.
According to a survey of the November of Last November wives forum, approximately 80 percent of respondents said their motivation to serve since the beginning of the war has decreased as a result of non -dissemination of ultra -orthodox as well as personal problems.
Benjamin is a married father of two children. He served the moon at the beginning of the war, but he said that although he wanted to return to service, he could not. “The household would disintegrate,” he says. “My wife is unable to be alone with children and society [ktorú riadim] would have to close. “
Israeli defensive forces do not disclose data on the loss of soldiers. In their statement, they stated that “there was no drastic change in the number of distributions and the units perform their tasks”. Several midfielder who spoke with the Financial Times said that although it is rare for the midfielder to leave its unit completely, it is currently more likely that for personal reasons he will not obey the profession for training or operational service.
One of the reserve officers, which has been placed near the Gaza border for several months, said in some units of midfielders, “less than half” is reported in the service. This gross figure was also confirmed by defensive analyst Harel, adding that if there was a wider discussion about the direction of the war, the anger would probably even deepen.
War is politicized
Opinion surveys show that more than 60 percent of Israelis wish Netanyahu to conclude an agreement with Hamas on the return of the remaining hostages, even if it meant the end of the war. However, under the pressure of his far -right political allies, the Prime Minister promised to fight until Hamas was destroyed.
The opposition parties and the hostage family claim that escalation will jeopardize the lives of those who are still captured in Gaza and argue that war is politicized to ensure the survival of Netanyahu coalition.
Netanyahu’s last week’s attempt to release the chief of the domestic spy agency deepened the riots and revived concerns about the constitutional crisis, which caused thousands of midfielder to protest their service before the attacks of 7 October.
Harel said that midfielders could do so if they feel that “they are to be sacrificed to achieve the real goals of the far right, which are the restoration of the settlements in Gaza and the expulsion of all the Palestinians, and not just the destruction of Hamas and the return of hostages”.
I will not leave my boys
In recent days, the aviation navigator and the intelligence officer have reported that they are suspending their reserve service. The second of them on the social network X said he would not participate in a war that is not “in the interests of the people of Israel”. Both were released from the army.
However, most midfielders claim that no matter what they think of the Prime Minister, they will continue to report to the fight they consider to be an existential match. David was already released from the backup service at the time of the outbreak of the war, but voluntarily applied for a six -month service in Gaza and another service on the West Bank, despite having a wife and children at home.
He said that although a quarter of his units may have limited their availability, he was firmly convinced that “people would show up when they called us again”. “Our homes are right there and I will not leave my boys,” he said. “” Eternal War “can serve Netanyahu, surely, but there are still things we have to achieve.”
Cartographia: Jana Tauschinski
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