The Chinese economy, affected by a serious real estate crisis, deflation and challenges in employment, is giving signs of recovery. Although economic activity remained weak, January and February had better numbers than expected.
The economy and the Chinese markets, affected in recent years by a real estate crisis Epic and by postpandemic scars, they now seem to be signs of recovery, reports the.
The data from second largest economy of the world related to the first two months of the year exceeded expectations and the Royal GDP growth It is slightly exceeding 5%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts in a note released on Friday.
This value is higher than the forecast of 4.9% previously presented by the Investment Bank. “The narrative changed notably In early 2025. Although economic activity has remained weak, many indicators seem to have stopped deteriorating, ”Goldman Sachs analysts say.
This assessment of the Chinese economy is made a few days from April 2, when the administration of US President, Donald Trumpplans to impose new “reciprocal tariffs”.
Goldman Sachs’s analysis shows that, despite an increase of 20 percentage points in US tariffs in the last two months, the uncertainty index Chinese traders did not increase much“What implies that the drag of fares for internal investment may be less than expected.”
O credit growtha sign of potential growth as companies and people contract loans, It is also acceleratingand the data collected on the ground by Goldman Sachs indicate stability or Marginal improvements in various key sectorsincluding the real estate.
However, scholarship markets have been driven by a recovery led by the technological sector, driven by the rise of the AI model, which is profitable, and by Chinese leader Xi Jinping Meeting With private sector entrepreneurs last month, as a sign of support.
However, he points out the insider, many of the current Economic Fundamentals From China did not change: the economy of China.
Industrial activity and investment in transforming industry maintain superior performance, while the real estate activity is still depressed. A inflation also remains “too low” And the job is still a challenge, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
Despite the government initiatives that have been released to revitalize the economy, including one launched by jinping to encourage new purchases, the consumption growth remains slow – Although there are positive points to consider.
“Although there was no significant recovery of global consumption, our analysts notice signs that Consumption is reaching the bottom of the well: The seasonal retreat after the Lunar New Year holiday It was better than it was; Price and promotions trends seem to be more stable and less aggressive than before, ”reads the Goldman Sachs report.
In a note published last week, Lynn Songeconomist considering that consumption in China is in a “dynamic of gradual recovery”, since retail sales in the first two months of the year exceeded expectations.
Growth has been driven by increased consumption under the exchange program, including cars, appliances and mobile phonessays the economist. Even expenses in discretionary articles that did not benefit from government exchange programs had a decent start this year.
These emerging positive signs are feed some optimism Together two economic analysts.
“As in 2023 and 2024, when several negative forces amplified and brought contrary forces disproportionate to growth, positive catalysts in early 2025 have the potential to reinforce and generate a cycle More virtuous, ”Goldman Sachs analysts write.
Still, the generality of economists and analysts remains cautious about the possibility of a total recovery of the Chinese economy-which may be affected by issues such as the trade war of Trump and the prolonged real estate recession.
