The three main European countries, Germany, France e Italiaprepare their strategies to overcome or minimize the impact of possible tariffs announced by Donald Trump Against European products with a look put on the Asian market, especially China and the India. The three countries have already established contacts with other commercial partners and follow the path marked by the president of the commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with an eye also put in the experience of the first mandate of the Republican in the White House.
This is how these three countries are facing a new commercial war scenario:
The German automotive crisiskey sector for this export power, it broke out long before Trump threatened his tariffs, the president of the Automobile Industry Federation (VDA), Hildegard Müllerat a meeting with foreign correspondents in Berlin. The bureaucratic obstacles They are a monster that ballasts any company in Germany, be it a colossus or a medium firm; Political fluctuations make a legislature support renewables and the following not; or suddenly the end of combustion engines is sentenced, and then postponed it. “The great loser in a war of tariffs will be the consumer,” is Müller’s creed. But In no way should Germany seek bilateral solutionsbut at the scale of the European Union (EU)holds the boss of the VDA.
Müller practices political neutrality. It has remained in dialogue with the outgoing government of the social democrat Olaf Scholzbut He is a member of the Cristianodemocrata Union (CDU) of the foreseeable chancellor, Friedrich Merz. The CDU is also the party of the president of the European Commission (CE), Ursula von der Leyen. In Brussels the hopes of German automotive are deposited. Germany exported in 2024 about 3.4 million new cars worldwide, of which 13.1% went to the US. The big brands, such as Volkswagen, Audi and BMW, in addition to Mercedes, through a plant shared with Nissan, have in Mexico the venues from which vehicles or components come to the US market. Tariffs against Mexico will affect them similar to what is feared with Europeans. But its maneuvering capacity, through the European Commission, is much greater.
The expectations of Germany are concentrated in the efforts of the Von der team about India, first, but also about China. It sounds like a paradox, since the Asian giant is attributed part of the ‘guilt’ for the German automotive crisis. Build faster, bring more competitive products, design and technique advanced and have not neglected the middle class, as it has happened among some German brands. He has been the great rival of the ‘Made in Germany’ and also the head of the fall in sales that affects the German sectoras soon as the Asian giant has weakened.
Can China stop being part of the problem to be the solution? That is the opinion of some experts and also apparently of von der Leyen. The president of the CE has already launched a signal at the end of February, when traveling to India with 20 of her commissioners and announcing with the prime minister Narendra Modi The shared intention of relaunching the free trade agreementstagnant since 2022. Its big beneficiaries would be the car market and the alcohol.
In parallel to this big screen, and while Trump sharpened his threats tariffs, Brussels has filed “very dynamic conversations” with Beijing to resume the investment agreement ‘Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, CAI’, writes the economic newspaper ‘Handelsblatt’. The agreement was entangled in 2020 by European tariffs on Chinese electric cars. Five years later, Germany begins to consider Beijing more reliable than the Donald Trump administration.
The government of France has been implying that it is working to diversify its export marketbut the recent threats of the president of the United States on imposing new tariffs have accelerated these contacts. It is not surprising that the country has learned from the first mandate of Donald Trumpand this was expressed a few months ago by the Treasury economist herself, Dorothée Rouzet: “We are much better prepared than in 2017, both because more measures were expected, and because we can trust the experience acquired during Trump’s first mandate.”
A few weeks ago, Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced that conversations with other international partners have intensified, such as Mexico, Canada or India. These contacts could already be seen in February during the International Congress of Artificial Intelligence held in Paris, which was also attended by the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. The President Emmanuel Macron He received Modi and both traveled to Marseille to know the Iter reactor, symbol of the nuclear cooperation between the two countries.
In the case of Mexico, the country is emerging as a key partner and an opportunity for France to strengthen commercial relations in the American continent, beyond the US influence. The French government has also insisted on strengthening. On March 17, Macron received at the Elysee Palace to the New Prime Minister of the Country, Mark Carnyon their first official visit abroad, where “reliable allies” were proclaimed in a meeting in which not only of Ukraine was discussed as planned, but also about the commercial policies of the Trump administration. For years, both countries have been important commercial partners with a free trade agreement (CETA) that facilitates the exchange of goods and services.
France has not shown so far a great concern about Trump’s threats, despite the announcement of 200% tariffs on champagne, wines and other alcoholic beverages. The Foreign Minister said the country took Trump’s statements “with cold blood” and said that “there is no commercial imbalance” with the United States.
He US Market represented 6.6% of agricultural exports in France In 2023. Wine and liquors are the main exported French products, exceeding 3.7 billion euros. In general terms, exports represent approximately 34.3% of France’s GDP, with a total of almost 650,000 million dollars. The European market remains the main destination of French products with 55.3% of exports, while countries outside the EU represent 44.7%, according to data from Santander Trade y The Observatory Economic Complexity.
In deafina, but before the imminence of an aggravation of a Commercial War With the US, the extreme right government of Giorgia Meloni accelerate in your search for New markets and allies that reduce the dependence of US clients. And, parked a year ago the megaproject of the New Silk Route from China, The focus of Rome now It is in India.
The strategy was presented days ago by Antonio TajaniTransalpino Foreign Minister. As explained by the politician, the plan is to create “An economic and logistics corridor between the IndiaThe Middle East and the Mediterranean, in which Italia be the entrance door of Asia in Europe. “” It is an election for our present but also an extraordinary possibility for the future of our economies, “Tajani added.
In a nutshell, the goal is to build the call Cotton routereinforcing Maritime and Land connections From India to Italy, especially railways, to allow to go further in exchanges, in particular in energy matters. The Italian ports involved would be Trieste (East) and Genoa (West), both located in Northern Italy, in the most industrialized area in the country.
Tajani He has already announced a trip to India For next April. The minister will be placed in the first line of the movements of the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who already traveled to the Asian country in February. “Our interests in this hypercompetitive world coincide most of the time. We can both lose in a world of spheres of influence and we can both win in a world of cooperation and joint work,” the German then said in New Delhi.
Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates, Jordan and Israel They are the other axes of the plan, especially as regards land connections. But an unknown is, in this line, how the current political opposition in Jordan will be resolved to any agreement with Israel for the current current war with Palestine. Which could force Find other alternativesalso consulting the other countries that want to be part of the project, Germany and France.
That said, Meloni, who has also maintained a good relationship with his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modiseems determined to carry out the plan. So much so that last February, on the occasion of a forum with Saudi Arabia, 40 bilateral agreements were signed (for a value of 40,000 million euros) with Riad that are framed in this strategy.
The explanation may find that, beyond all, Rome has all the interest in having a plan B if the repeated threats of Trump materialize. The reason is in the figures: only in 2024, Italian sales to the US They were equivalent to 10% of the total of its exports, according to the most recent data of the Institute of Statistics of Italy (Istat).
“In 2024, more than 48% of the value of Italian exports was out of the EU, a share higher than those of Germany, France and Spain,” the Istat added in its report. With this, “the application of tariffs announced by the US administration against the EU could have significant effects” in Italy, the institute warned. A black scenario especially in what concerns products such as wine.
