A partial ceasefire is established: Ukraine and Russia have agreed to safely navigate in the Black Sea – and this is relatively easy to fulfill; There were also agreement on measures that prohibit attacks on energy infrastructures in Russia and Ukraine – and this is substantially harder to comply; And it has also been agreed that the US will help “restore Russia’s access to the world’s exports of agricultural products and fertilizers” – and this is something that Zelensky thinks the US should not be fulfilled already
“They all win” with this ceasefire agreement established this Tuesday, the commentator of CNN Portugal Tiago André Lopes underlines. “Russia obviously earns more from an economic point of view by returning to international markets. But for Ukraine this break and the ability to drain its products through the Black Sea is also very important.”
The agreement allows to “ensure navigation safety, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial ships for military purposes in the Black Sea,” according to a statement from the White House. Tiago André Lopes notes, however, that Russia gets more concessions than Ukraine – and explains why.
“Russia is winning the war. From the moment you are gaining the war you have to give you more things. Donald Trump and her team realized this in these two rounds of negotiations in Riyadh.
From the military point of view, says the commentator, nothing changes in front of battle, except the attacks to Odessa, a city that is no longer a legitimate target while applying the ceasefire, which “turns out to be an advantage for a strategic city.” “It will not change the course of war, will change the way things are going through and eventually create political confidence from side to side (…) to put them at the table to discuss issues such as territory, judicial cases, children’s return and everything else that war implies,” says Tiago André Lopes.
International law expert Francisco Pereira Coutinho has a similar opinion. “Right now, the Black Sea was no longer a very significant stage. In February 2022 there was even the occupation of that island [Ilha das Serpentes] And it was feared until the fleet could even make an amphibious landing in Odessa. But we are no longer at this stage, it is not even a threat to Ukraine. Ukraine managed to push the Russian fleet out of its coastal cities, it was a victory. ”
Francisco Pereira Coutinho, who is also a commentator of CNN Portugal, also agrees with the idea that both Russia and Ukraine gain from the agreement – but notes that it “does not solve anything substantial to any of them.” “Ukraine had already managed to export cereals even without this agreement. It gives it another kind of security, but Ukraine had already managed to ward off the Russian fleet from the Black Sea. It is an agreement that does not bring it great advantage, but also does not bring the Russian Federation much. It is an agreement that was easy to achieve because it is mutually beneficial.”
In addition to ceasefire, this agreement also ensures that the US will help “restore Russia’s access to the world exports of agricultural and fertilizer product exports, reduce the costs of maritime insurance and improve access to ports and payment systems for these transactions”, as well as the development of measures to “apply President Trump and President Putin’s agreement to prohibit attacks on russia and russia installations and Russia installations from Ukraine ”.
As for this last point, Francisco Pereira Coutinho points out the difficulty of its implementation. “There are very complicated technical details, such as realizing which infrastructures are protected and in what context,” he says, also concluding that the agreement achieved in this respect is “very precarious”.
“We do not know what the duration is. The other lasted a year and the ceasefire that was spoken to the electrical and energy infrastructures would be 30 days. The duration is not known, but there is a precedent.”
In his Night Communication on Tuesday, the Ukrainian President accused Russia of “having already begun to manipulate” the ceasefire agreement. “Ukraine is willing to work as quickly and transparently as possible to end the war. But unfortunately, at this time, on the day of conversation, we see how the Russians have already begun to manipulate. They are already trying to distort the agreements and deceive our mediators and the whole world,” said Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Ukrainian President states that the agreement is immediately implemented, while Kremlin states that it will only be applied after the survey of some sanctions against Russia. “Moscow is always lying,” accused the Ukrainian leader. Zelensky also warned that there will be a “strong response” to Russia if Kremlin attacks again and violates the terms of the ceasefire.
