Europe no longer wants to rely on the United States, and in recent weeks he is looking for a way to deter Russia with the help of its own forces. This also applies to nuclear weapons.
While the US is concentrating on China and its growing arsenal, European leaders are looking for their own solutions.
France emphasizes its nuclear forces, Poland is considering their extension and Germany wants closer cooperation. Can French nuclear weapons be enough to deter Russia?
US for Trump: It is no longer a reliable partner
Still in French President Emmanuel Macron suggested to think about the role of the French nuclear deterioration within Europe. Already at that time he was advocated for common nuclear exercises with European partners. Five years later, Friedrich Merz, now the next German Chancellor, an extension of French nuclear protection to Germany, especially at a time when the United States under the leadership of Donald Trump. Germany does not have its own nuclear weapons, which only has France and the United Kingdom in Europe.
Polish President Andrzej Duda is also interested in expanding the French nuclear deterioration to European allies, but at the same time indicated that Poland could its own nuclear deterrent mechanism. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk The idea that Poland must consider all the possibilities, including nuclear protection as part of his security interests.
However, Tusk warned against the risks that such a step could bring, especially possible destabilization of the region. Indeed, the development of its own nuclear arsenal could break the contract on the non -extension of nuclear weapons (NPT) and lead to a dangerous arms race. Therefore, Poland prefers to seek a way to cooperate with France as part of its concept of “nuclear umbrella” for Europe. Tusk stressed that Poland is currently conducting serious talks with France about the possibility of involvement in this protection.
This shift in rhetoric indicates an increasing effort of some European leaders to strengthen the continent’s defense independently of the United States.
Can a French nuclear umbrella protect Europe?
In 1960, while support from the US has changed depending on political events. The emergence of independent French strategic forces has long raised resentment in Washington, which has tried to limit them through international agreements, such as a covenant of nuclear tests in an atmosphere of 1963 and a non -extension of nuclear weapons from 1968.
The French nuclear arsenal originated in response to the threat of the Soviet invasion and aim to ensure strategic independence from the United States. The French doctrine, which political leaders regularly confirm, counts on the use of nuclear forces – air and submarine – in the event of an attack on the vital interests of the state.
Without American support, however, France would face a significant strategic disadvantage. While its arsenal contains 290 nuclear heads, Russia has at least 1,600 heads and almost 2,800 others in the operation.
“French strategic ballistic missiles M51, fired from submarines, have the impact and strength capable of hit by the main Russian cities, including Moscow,” says the analysis for The Conversation Expert Benoit Grémare. “Nevertheless, there was an estimate in the Russian media that the” Satan II “rocket could destroy Paris in just 200 seconds, indicating a huge risk of nuclear conflict,” he adds.
Moreover, because of its huge radio, Russia could use everything for a long -term so -called wear -out war.
Will the British also get involved?
German Chancellor Friedrich MerzTogether, France and Britain will provide Europe with extended nuclear guarantees. However, this would require formal agreements in which both countries would commit themselves to protect NATO allies and create common decisions or nuclear weapons sharing mechanisms.
France could have its nuclear strategy with a narrower cooperation with Britain, which increased the number of its heads to 260 after Brexit, the second possible partner in creating a European nuclear umbrella – the total number of European nuclear heads is comparable to the Chinese arsenal.
Although both countries share common interests, their approach to nuclear policy varies significantly. While Britain is part of NATO nuclear planning and uses American technologies, France retains complete independence – it produces its weapons in its own territory and is not bound by alliance commitments. This autonomy gives it more flexibility in determining the nuclear doctrine and allows it to perform on behalf of the European Union.
The problem, however, remains that they differ from American ones – not only quantity and size, but also in the way possible. France has both air and submarine nuclear weapons, while Britain relies exclusively on submarines. This means that the complete replacement of the US nuclear deterrent in Europe by French or British weapons would be complicated, experts say.
Although British nuclear weapons are officially independent, they technically depend on the US. The United Kingdom produces its own heads, but for example, Trident buys rockets from the US and regularly service it there. If the US stopped supplying or maintaining these missiles, Britain would have to replace them with what would be difficult, as all nuclear system components are adapted to each other.
The United Kingdom has a smaller nuclear arsenal than France, but provides extended NATO nuclear guarantees. As a member of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), it has committed to protect Europe with its nuclear weapons. However, France holds a different approach – its nuclear arsenal has always been intended exclusively for the defense of the country and operates independently of the US, with all components being produced in its own territory.
If France wants to brighter its commitment to European security, it could change its nuclear strategy and explicitly include Europe in its deterrent mechanism. Connecting to the NATO nuclear planning group would be a logical step – although Paris claims that its nuclear program had a “European dimension” since the 1970s.
Challenges and possibilities of European nuclear protection
The extension of the French nuclear umbrella, supported by the future Chancellor Friedrich Merz, follows Paris’s long -term efforts to strengthen European defense. Although the final decision on the use of nuclear weapons remains in the hands of the French President, their deployment to protect the whole of Europe would require a clear strategic direction, defining protected interests and command of command.
If France was committed to the widespread nuclear protection of Europe, it would mean strengthening its arsenal aboveto effectively deterly threats to all 27 EU Member States. Great powers like the US, Russia or soon China have approximately 1,000 thermonuclear heads. This would require renewal of closed production facilities and new investments in infrastructure in partner countries, and estimated costs could exceed EUR 10 billion per year.
Until now, Berlin has seen French nuclear capacities as a supplement to the US deterioration. However, growing concerns about the weakening of the US, especially in the context of Ukraine, are forcing Europe to consider alternatives.
The visible presence of nuclear capable combat aircraft in the region could discourage Moscow from a conventional attack on the Eastern European countries, and at the same time it would be a manifestation of European unity. This step would send a clear signal that the continent’s safety will no longer depend solely on the United States.
