Ruan Argenton, an analyst of the XP real estate sector, participated in the program Morning Call da XP And he explained the revisions of Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) revisions, although the program presents the best performance in its history.
“When you look at January 2025, it increased the hiring goal for the MCMV, which went to 2.5 million by 2026 – this goal was 2 million,” explained the analyst.
“We must have in 2025 and 2026 years accelerated of hiring as by 2024 half of that number was made,” he said. But he explained that there is a demand potential in 2025 which is different from the scenario of 2024.
Argenton reported that Group 3 of Minha Casa Minha Vida suffered a drop in demand for a limitation for used units. “And groups 1 and 2 of the MCMV, which support the lower incomes of the program, they must suffer a little more from the scenario of economic slowdown,” he added.
“So, it is having a scenario of weakened demand within the MCMV with a very ambitious goal of the government,” he said.
The program today has three monthly gross family income ranges for the three groups. “These ranges have differences in interest rates between them. What can be seen is that since 2023 these ranges are unchanged, in the same amount. And the minimum wage has been revised twice (in the period),” said the analyst.
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According to him, there may be an increase in these MCMV income ranges by about 7.5% each, which represents a considerable absorption of families in different bands, which would benefit from lower interest rates – interest rates fall as they serve lower income ranges, such as groups 1 and 2 of the program.
Group 4
“Most Brazilian families are framed in track 1 and 2. And they are very sensitive to income commitment. And anything that generates improvement in income commitment, this is significantly important to demand,” he said.
Another point highlighted by the analyst would be the creation of a new group, 4. According to Ruan Argenton, group 4 emerged because a budget of $ 15 billion from a background that was dedicated to pre-salt was relocated and was relocated to inflate MCMV. “This created an opportunity for the program to be extended,” he explained.
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He explains that group 4 would serve income ranges from R $ 8 thousand to R $ 12 thousand and maximum growth per unit sold from R $ 400 thousand or R $ 500 thousand.
“As much as this measure seems temporary, due to the characteristic of the budget, the purchase capacity gains are relevant,” he said.
XP pointed out that the creation of a new track 4 could increase the demand for varied lace operators. In the view of the analysis team, Tent () – followed by MRV & CO () and Plan & Plan () – is the one that will benefit the most from possible revisions of the income limits of groups 1 and 2 due to its significant exposure to lower income ranges, which can lead to VSO gains (sales on supply) and better customer selection.
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It is likely that Cury () and Directional () also benefit from the creation of track 4, given (i) the best accessibility in this segment and (ii) the complete inclusion of its enterprise portfolios under MCMV conditions. “If approved, we believe this could improve the performance of short -term launches and strengthen the growth prospects of both companies,” he says.
