The millionaire figures are, for some time, part of the news of Brazilian football. Fans are already used to reading about salaries and transfers with values of at least six digits. The billions, however, have become more frequent, commonly used to show the size of the debts of Brazilian clubs.
Even with worrying liabilities, the teams continue to increase spending on hiring. By 2024, the teams here spent a record amount of US $ 353 million on players’ transfers, an increase of 141% compared to the previous year and 227% compared to 2022, according to data released by FIFA.
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Among the news of Brasileirão 2025, which starts this Saturday (29), are the two most expensive players in the history of Brazilian football: Vitor Roque, which cost about $ 154 million to Palmeiras, and midfielder Wendel, hired by Botafogo for $ 123 million. Statistics repeats last year’s achievement, when Thiago Almada (Botafogo) and Carlos Alcaraz (Flamengo) debuted as the most expensive players in Brazil until then.
With the inflation of the transfer market and the pressure for hiring good players, Brazilian football is inflating a bubble that should burst and bring serious consequences to the domestic market, analysts heard by Infomoney.
The Bubble of Hiring
In the financial market, a bubble is formed when an asset values without foundation and its price is much higher than it should be. The concept applies to the transfer market, which has increasingly expensive players and clubs increasingly investing in purchases. “In two years, the bubble bursts,” says Amir Somoggi, partner at Sports Value.
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Clubs can postpone the consequences selling assets, but should face a financial crisis if they do not step on the brake on hiring, according to the analyst.
In recent years, Brazilian teams have had their revenues driven by the sponsorship of betting houses, injection of money in the SAFs (corporations of football) and the sale of transmission rights. But for Cesar Grafietti, specialist in sports finance and partner of the consultancy summoned, “the huge amount of hiring is backed in two aspects that are not sustainable.”
The economist argues that there is no clarity whether the Bets will follow with millionaire contributions in football in the coming years or security about how far SAF owners are going: “We are increasing spending based on revenues that we do not know if we will have the same proportion in the coming years,” he says. With millionaire hiring, salary leaves also increase, while teams do not seem concerned with paying off their debts.
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Another factor that helps inflate the bubble is what Somoggi classifies as a herd effect: “Times think they are Flamengo, Palmeiras and Botafogo continue to invest, they also need to invest.” That is, the wealthy ones pull the line and make clubs that can no longer spend ways to hire stars so as not to be left behind in sports performance.
Fluminense tries to row against the tide and wipe out spending, according to coach Mano Menezes: “We need to work with numbers below and find solutions that are not the same as they (wealthy clubs) can find,” said the coach, in an interview with TNT Sports. For him, “we are living a bubble that will certainly be bored up front; the clubs could not honor commitments in such large values, we do not have, on average, a recipe for this.”
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The lack of financial fair play rules also contributes to unsustainable growth of transfer figures, according to Somoggi: “Cruzeiro and Botafogo spend without revenue; no regulation, the team can close with $ 200 million loss if you want and have an owner to inject capital”.
The expert cites as problematic the logic of investing waiting for return with awards in the biggest competitions. “It would be obvious to spend more and be champion of everything, but you can’t stay in the performance box.”
Who’s in the bubble?
The most expression teams in the national scenario are the most remembered when talking about exorbitant expenses, but they are not the only ones with participation in the problem. “There is a general inflation in Brazilian football, we have C -Series teams paying salaries incompatible with the revenues they have, which is related to the increase in SAF in these divisions to try to be competitive,” explains Grafietti.
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The migration to the SAF model also does not make a club immune to the problem, as Botafogo’s case is seen with concern, for example. The team belongs to John Texor, who also runs French Lyon. The European club is going through serious financial difficulties that can sprinkle in the carioca brother. Vasco, who went into judicial recovery after problems with the group that bought their control, also shows that SAFs may be involved in the bubble.
For Grafietti, Cuiabá, Fortaleza, Atletico Goianiense, Grêmio and Athletico Paranaense are “more controlled”, while “the rest is just trying to keep up with the SAF movement.” Palmeiras and Flamengo continue as the best examples of management today, with a point of attention to the Rio club for the construction of its stadium, according to the economist.
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Bahia is also seen more optimisticly about having the city group behind, an organization with a history considered positive in the management of clubs such as Manchester City and Girona.
Consequences
The bubble may burst “when extraordinary revenues stop in,” according to Sports Value, according to Amir Somoggi. For him, “relegation is the bubble burst, with financially broken clubs, unable to keep up.”
Times with high investments that are not champions will also be able to feel a rebound effect on the cashier, with owners decreasing contributions in SAFs or associations losing negotiation power with sponsors. “Long contracts with high salaries will become debt,” projects Grafietti projects.
Who adopted the company model is in the short term, says the partner of the summoned. “Associations do not go bankrupt, have benefits in this regard, can installment in 15 years taxes and late labor charges, but SAF may break, they have a higher risk if management is not efficient and cannot follow the model of spending associations than they should.”
On the other hand, he will consider that teams organizing in associations are not free from the consequences. “More than sanctions, the system itself will end up punishing the most indebted clubs,” predicts the expert. The argument is that it will be increasingly difficult to attract talent without the accounts up to date, which will strongly impact sports performance.
The great signings that arrive to compete in the Brasileirão were attracted by teams with owners they are still investing – such as Botafogo (John Texor) and Cruzeiro (Pedrinho) – or with more balanced balance sheets – such as Palmeiras and Flamengo, argues Grafietti.
On the other hand, he cites Corinthians and Sao Paulo that – with the exception of Oscar, hired with the help of a betting house – did not make major cast reformulations in 2025. “It’s not because they don’t want to (hire), it’s because they can’t have difficulty managing the same model as before, the system generates it naturally,” he concludes.
