The main indicators of Brazilian financial market They walk to end the first quarter of this year with the best performance for the period since 2022, supported by the highest entry of foreign money and the perception that Brazilian assets are very discounted prices.
Analysts heard by CNN also cite expectations of interest relief and projections of alternation in the government as factors that enthusiastic investors at the beginning of the year.
O Ibovespa It ended the last week with accumulated gain of 9.6%, returning most of them, show data from Elos Ayta Consultoria.
In the opposite direction, the Ptax dollar – calculated by the Central Bank (BC) – devalued almost 6.9% between January and March, at R $ 5,766 on sale.
Largest International Flow
The money from international investors in the Brazilian stock exchange is cited as one of the main points for improving the indications.
Data from B3 prove this scenario: between January and March this year, Brazil’s stock market registered the entry of R $ 12 billion, until last Friday (28).
In the same period last year, the result was the opposite, with the departure of almost $ 23 billion.
Beto Saadia, director of investments at Nomos, explains that this movement reflects the rotation of global money, especially with the capital departure from the United States amid the uncertainties generated by the tariff policy of Donald Trump.
The fear of recession in the largest economy in the world It has gained muscles in recent weeks, especially after recent Republican statements on the effects of new tariff guidelines.
In addition to the US scenario, investors seek opportunities in emerging countriesespecially in the midst of fiscal impulse, as in Brazil and China.
“It combines a likely American recession, which has increased probability well, with all these stimuli, both tax and interest rates. This ends up making this money go to emerging and, for example, Brazil is a destination,” he explains.
Discounted actions
The performance in the early months of 2025 goes in the opposite direction to the observed in 2024, especially at the end of the year, with the stock market ending below 120,000 points, while the dollar was negotiated around the historic maxim,.
Rodrigo Simões, economist and professor at the Faculty of Commerce of the São Paulo Commercial Association (FAC-SP), points to this period of strong depreciation of domestic assets as one of the bases for recovery.
He emphasizes the attractiveness of the assets of the Brazilian scholarship, even in the midst of a more restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic keeping in two digits since February 2022.
“Despite all this time we have had high interest rates to this day in Brazil, there are many assets with good prices on the stock market,” he says.
Saadia indicates the same path, reinforcing that the value measured by the price on profit (p/l) was at historically low levels, supporting the readjustment movement seen in recent months.
Interest and elections on the radar
Economists also point to the market’s anticipation movement of a possible fall in interest and alternation in command of the country.
In the monetary policy area, after three high in a row, bringing Selic to the level of 14.25% per year.
Although it still predicts adjustments that will bring the basic rate to peak and 15% later this year, the market already anticipates the reversal of the rise cycle from 2026, with interest retreating to the level of 12.5%, according to data from the Focus Bulletin.
According to Simões, this picture of interest relief is justified by signs – even if small – of inflation cooling.
ante .
The market also sees that the indicator will lose strength throughout this year, ending by 5.65% – although the ceiling of the BC’s goal is still burst – and will continue the fall trajectory in 2026.
“It makes investors not only look at fixed income assets, but also start looking at variable income assets, with a little more risk,” explains the FAC-SP professor.
The expectation of changes in the country’s driving also gives the basis for the improvement of assets, says Saadia of Nomos.
According to him, this movement has been observed since the beginning of the year, how and that.
In addition to the uncertainty about the petista’s position next year, Sadadia also points to the factor that has moved the spirits of the market in recent months.
“This very low popularity makes the market a little better for post-2026 with this alternation of government, and obviously people end up anticipating a probable high that can happen in the bag,” he explains.
