An earthquake of magnitude 9 in the Nankai Fossa region of Japan could leave up to 300,000 dead, dislodge more than 12 million people and generate economic losses of up to $ 1.8 trillion, according to a new Japanese government report on Monday (31). The value represents approximately half of the annual gross domestic product of the country.
This is the first update in a decade of projections on a possible “great earthquake” (or Big One) that threatens the Japanese peaceful coast. The most pessimistic scenario of the study considers the tremor happening on a winter night, when much of the population would be at home – often in more vulnerable wooden buildings – or in transit, increasing the risk of deaths and logistics chaos.
Read more:
According to the report, the most affected region would be the province of Shizuoka, in the industrial heart of Japan, with potential for over 100,000 deaths. Other highly populated areas, such as Tokyo and Osaka, would also suffer direct impacts. In all, more than 20 of the country’s 47 provinces would be at direct risk.
Although the estimated number of fatalities have fallen from the previous report (which project 330,000 deaths), thanks to improvements in infrastructure, mobile alerts and greater population preparation, the economic loss was reviewed up, up 26%. This is due to inflation in recent years and the greater ability to analyze the impacts of tsunamis and flooding in different regions.
Read more:
Continues after advertising
The warning comes amid the growing concern of the Japanese with recent seismic activities. In August last year, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake was first called the new alert system installed in 2017, although it did not cause serious damage. After the event, the search for emergency kits and preventive measures between the population increased.
Experts currently estimate a 80% probability of a magnitude earthquake between 8 and 9 in Nankai’s fossa in the next 30 years.
(With information from Financial Times)
