The most recent round of the atlasintel survey, released on Tuesday (1st), points out that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) would be defeated in an eventual second round by Pablo Marçal (PRTB) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The petista also tie technically with Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and would overcome other possible opponents, such as Ronaldo Caiado, Eduardo Leite and Romeu Zema. The simulated scenarios show the following:
- Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 51% x Lula: 46%
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 48% x Lula: 46%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 47% x Lula: 46%
- Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 37% x Lula: 47%
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): 36% x Lula: 46%
- Romeu low (New): 25% x Lula: 44%
The remaining percentages correspond to blank, null or undecided votes.
The most surprising fact is Pablo Marçal’s performance, who leads Lula with five points of advantage. The influencer and coach, who joined the PRTB, appears at the head of the president even without occupying public office, reflecting the strength of social networks and disappointment with the traditional names of politics.
Despite the influencer’s political claims in February this year, the abuse of power. The decision is still appealed.
Already Bolsonaro, even ineligible at the moment, follows competitive and surpasses Lula for two points. The survey shows that the right today has three viable electoral names to 2026, expanding the range of possibilities against the current president.
Retreat in relation to the previous research
The April round shows one. At the time, only Tarcisio appeared as a royal threat to the petista, with a technical draw (45.7% to 44.7%).
Now, two names surpass Lula, and the disapproval of the president follows high: 53.6%, as measured in the same survey.
The research was conducted by LATAM PULSE, in partnership with Bloomberg and the Atlasintel Institute, between March 20 and 24, 2025, with 4,659 interviews conducted via online forms distributed at random. The margin of error is 1 percentage point, with a confidence interval of 95%.
