“There is a debate on how the Fed [banco central dos EUA] will react and then how it will have an impact on Brazil, ”said Diogo Guillen
The director of economic policy of, Diogo Guillen, said this Monday (31.mar.2025) that the great tariff plan the US president, (Republican), should announce on Wednesday (2.ab.2025) will leave “More uncertainty”. The American leader has called the date as a “day of liberation.”
“You have a continuous change, climb a rate from 2% to 2.5%, it’s completely different from going from 2% to 25%, for example. This changes the business plan a lot. This discussion of Liberation Day, I don’t think uncertainty resolves that day. We’ll get more uncertain.”these guill.
He talked about the subject in a lecture on the economic conjuncture at Eseg College in São Paulo.
Investors keep caution with Trump’s promise to apply rates against “All countries”. There are at least 2 ways that the American leader can adopt:
- general rates of up to 20%;
- reciprocal tariffs – more restricted soul.
The Central Bank director said there may be discussions the next day about:
- Uns implemented tariffs;
- Responses from countries to tariffs that were implemented; and
- Tariff scaling if there is response.
“There is a debate on how the Fed [banco central dos EUA] will react and then how it will have an impact on Brazil ”he declared. According to Guillen, the Federal Reserve “It has been drawing attention that these tariffs have led to an increase in expectation of inflation”.
Selic
Diogo Guillen also said that the magnitude of Selic’s discharge at the May 6th and 7th meeting is not closed due to the scenario of uncertainty. On March 19, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) that the elevation of the basic interest rate will be less than 1 percentage point at the next meeting.
“The lag itself would already suggest a less magnitude. In addition, you have another component that is uncertainty. So I see as 2 steps to less magnitude. The 3rd, uncertainty: how much this smaller magnitude, we leave open.”he declared.
Today, o. The BC director also stated that the monetary tightening cycle “It must continue because you have an adverse scenario of inflation”.
