Dollar retreats and closes at $ 5.68 with weak data in the US; Ibovespa closes on the eve of the ‘Liberation Day’

After a moderate discharge in the early hours of business, it fell late on Tuesday, April 1, in the local market in line with the external environment. Data from the labor market and the US industry below expectations reinforced the signs of the economy of the economy on the eve of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs promised by US President Donald Trump.

With a maximum of R $ 5,7323 and minimum at R $ 5,6734, the cash dollar ended Tuesday’s trading session of 0.40%, to R $ 5,6824-below the level of R $ 5.70 at the first time since March 20. In the year, the currency now accumulates losses of 8.05%. After showing the best performance among major global currency on Monday (except Rublo), Real presented on Tuesday gains lower than his Latin American peers, such as Mexican and Chilean pesos. Dollar behavior thermometer compared to six strong currency, the dxy index was practically zero to zero.

Reading between analysts is that the cooling of the US economy, as long as it does not drop in recession, takes away the attractiveness of the dollar and favors emerging currency-especially if the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US Central Bank) delivers two interest cuts this year, as signaled at the March Monetary Policy meeting.

Among the indicators of the day, the Industrial Activity Index (PMI) of the United States prepared by the Institute for Offer Management (ISM) fell from 50 in February to 49 in March, while analysts predicted 49.5. Readings below 50 indicate retraction of activity.

Jolts report, published by the Labor Department, showed that the opening of US posts fell to 7.568 million in February. The forecast was 7.65 million. These numbers heat up the expectation for the disclosure on Friday (4) of the Official March Employment Report (Payroll).

Fed leaders have reinforced in recent days that US monetary policy is well positioned at this time to deal with the high degree of uncertainty caused by Trump’s van. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that the uncertainty environment “is not causing paralysis” from the US economy. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin pointed out that the title market is “increasingly signaling risks of recession.” In the case of Brazil, Real is somewhat less vulnerable from the perspective of more monetary tightening, with Selic probably reaching 15%.

B3 Index

On the eve of Liberation Day -such as Wednesday, April 2, it is being treated in the United States by the Donald Trump government -, the On Tuesday he found his own legs to take off from external caution, up 0.68%at 131,147.29 points. From minimum to maximum session, it was from 130 080.54 to 131,982.29 points, leaving opening at 130,266.57. Financial Giro rose at R $ 24.7 billion on Tuesday before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in the US, which promises to shake the foundation of international exchanges at the time when market agents continue to be aware of signs of slowdown in global activity.

The greatest caution with the US economy has resulted in recent weeks in rotating the main market, New York, for other financial squares, even benefiting Brazil. In New York, the day was of variation contained for the main stock rates, between -0.03% (Dow Jones) and +0.87% (NASDAQ) at the closing of the session. Here, the dollar in sight yielded 0.40%, at R $ 5.6824, and the domestic interest curve also had low adjustment on Tuesday.

In B3, the day was positive alignment for most blue chips, despite some loss of dynamism in these afternoon roles. Thus, Petrobras On, who rose more than 3%at the best time, closed still up 0.51%, while the PN advanced 0.38%.

Vale on, in turn, was up 0.86% and, among large banks, the variations were between -0.16% (Bradesco PN) and +0.54% (Bradesco On). At the winning tip, Assai (+5.57%), Brazil Telefônica (+4.96%) and localiza (+4.50%). On the opposite side, Natura (-7.91%), Braskem (-3.45%) and blue (-2.74%). In the week, the Ibovespa still gives 0.57% and, in the year, advances 9.03%.

Highlight of the external agenda in the morning, in February the number of job openings that remained open in the US, according to the Jolts Report -one of the metrics about the work closely monitored by Federal Reserve -registered a light fall, with about 7.6 million opportunities, just below January number. The reduction was mainly pulled by retail sectors, financial services, hospitality and restaurants, traditionally dynamic areas.

*With information from Estadão Content
Posted by Carolina Ferreira