Nintendo’s actions reached a series of records in anticipation of the Switch 2 console launch, transforming the revelation of device details into a potentially decisive event for the company.
The expectation surrounding the official presentation of the console, scheduled for Wednesday, is high, with actions being negotiated near its highest level in seven years. The pressure to impress with the new device and its games has increased even more due to concerns about the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the price of Switch 2.
Over the past 12 months, Nintendo’s shares have registered an appreciation of about 25%, significantly surpassing the Topix index of Japan and, for a brief period, raising the company’s market capitalization over $ 100 billion for the first time. At the same time, the interest in discovered sales has increased in recent weeks, with some investors betting on a possible drop.
If Switch 2 details do not exceed market expectations, “Nintendo’s performance over the last year probably summarizes the potential for discharge,” said Pelham Smithers, a UK -based Japanese stock analyst. He also pointed out that actions may lose attractiveness after the release of the console, as “they have greatly benefited from the generated hype.”
In January, Nintendo’s actions lost part of his moment after the launch of a Switch 2 teaser video, which brought fewer details than expected. This Wednesday’s presentation promises more information, with compatibility with third party games being a key point, in addition to the price of the new console.
“If the price is $ 449 or $ 499, as many are predicting, that will be very high – and this before considering the tariffs,” Smithers noted. He added that the ability to run titles not available on the original switch, such as those released for the latest PlayStation of Sony Group Corp., would be an important factor in boosting demand.
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Investors also await the announcement of new games internally developed for Switch 2, which is expected to hit the market as early as June.
“The most important thing will be to have a really attractive software catalog,” such as new titles by Mario Kart and Pokémon, to support demand for the console and its initial release, Doug Creutz, an analyst at TD Cowen.
Creutz, who maintains a purchase recommendation for stocks, believes that Nintendo’s appreciation still has room to grow, projecting a potential of over 20% over the next year. “Nintendo’s intellectual property has been very successful, and I believe this value has not yet been fully recognized by the market,” he said.
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The expectation of additional gains from intellectual properties outside the game industry, such as the movie “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”, also contributed to the valorization of actions. Over the past two months, they have been traded about 30 times the estimated future profits, a level last seen in early 2018, and higher than competitors like Sony and Microsoft Corp.
This high appreciation, however, increased bets on a fall. Interest in sales -discovered sales has risen to over 1.8% of Free Float, close to the highest level by about a year, according to Global S&P data.
Nevertheless, market analysts remain mostly optimistic about Nintendo, with 21 purchase recommendations, eight maintenance and only three selling. The most confident investors highlight the potential of Switch 2 to boost sales and resume profit growth, which have slowed with the aging of its predecessor.
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Still, the strong appreciation of actions can make them vulnerable to disappointments after the official presentation of the console. For comparison, Nintendo’s shares fell about 6% the week following the revelation of the original switch details in January 2017.
“It would not be surprising to see a round of profits after the Switch 2 announcement,” said Robin Zhu, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. He added that the losses “will probably be higher than in the last hardware presentation,” due to the historically high price of actions today.
© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.
