The measure was nicknamed “Liberation Day” by the US President; experts see as a combination of economic protectionism and political strategy
US President Donald Trump (Republican )’s commercial policy, reaches its peak on Wednesday (2.ab.2025), with the beginning of the collection of reciprocal tariffs.
Trump dubbed the date of “Liberation Day” (“Liberation Day”in Portuguese) because, according to him, it will mark the moment the US will break free from foreign products.
The new rates add to the other rates imposed by the Republican since the. Remember:
With them, Trump seeks to reach commercial partners that impose barriers considered “Unfair” for him. The affected countries and other details will also be announced in this 4th (2.abr), from 17h (Brasília time). It remains to be seen if Brazil is among them.
The White House would already have a list of the calls “Dirty 15” (or “15 dirty”in Portuguese), which includes countries such as China, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, as well as the EU (European Union).
Second vice president of the CEBRI (Brazilian Center for International Relations) and Ambassador that has played at the WTO (World Trade Organization), tariffs may have been selected by criteria may have been selected by criteria “More politicians” or “More economical-common”.
“By the economic-common criterion, Brazil should not be on this list. But as Brazil is always being quoted by Trump as a country that should contribute more to business relations, although the United States has a surplus in trade with Brazil, we will have to wait.”said in an interview with Poder360.
After on February 13, the White House released a document in which faced by the United States. Claims “US tariff over ethanol is only 2.5%”but that Brazil charges an 18% fee of US ethanol exports.
Despite this “Imbalance” presented by the US Administration, the surplus that the US has with Brazil to convince the White House to exempt the country from tariffs.
If this does not occur, experts evaluate that the effects of this measure may vary according to the sectors and strategies adopted by Brazil.
economist and professor at PUC-SP (Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo), explains that the country possibly will have a reduction in exports of some products to the US.
It ponders, however, that this may even result in benefits for Brazil if these products are redirected to the domestic market, boosting the national industry and strengthening local productive chains.
It cites as an example the ethanol that, by ceasing to be exported, “It can become cheaper in Brazil, benefiting the cost of fuel and reducing inflation”.
In addition, the lower dependence on the foreign market can encourage export diversification and the development of new business opportunities in other countries. This, however, will only be possible if Brazil has a strategy, according to the expert.
Mello e Lima also evaluate that the best strategy for Brazil would be negotiation with the US if the country establishes reciprocal tariffs on Brazilian products. The ambassador warns that a possible retaliation of the Brazilian government would be a risky strategy.
“I never believed that retaliation is a good solution to one side or the other. But trade is often affected and harmed by political decisions and it may happen that for a particular product, Brazil also decides to impose a tariff.”these.
The president (PT) if an appeal in the WTO does not resolve the issue of . It can adopt a similar measure in the case of reciprocal tariffs.
On Tuesday (1st), the Senate Economic Affairs Commission and environmental in trade with other countries, in response to the increase in tariffs in the United States. The text went straight to the House of Representatives.
The project was idealized by the opposition to the Lula government and was articulated by the Agro bench, but was supported by allies from the Planalto Palace during the processing. If no senator asks for analysis in plenary, the measure will directly go to the House of Representatives.
Trade with other countries
Double Mexico and Canada and China, the first countries to be hit by Trump’s policy respectively, They are the 3 largest commercial partners in the United States. They moved $ 2.18 trillion with Americans in 2024. These are the countries that the US exports and matters most.
The US, however, has a commercial deficit with the 3 countries when you buy more than you sell. The main highlight is with China. The commercial balance is negative at US $ 295.4 billion.
Last year, the commercial current was $ 839.9 billion in Mexico, US $ 762.1 billion in Canada and $ 582.5 billion in China.
Trump’s strategy
The fees imposed by the Republican represent a combination of political strategy and economic protectionism. According to Laerte Apolinário, professor of international relations at PUC-SP, “Trump uses tariffs as a negotiating and pressure tool, especially against business partners he considers ‘unjust’”.
Similarly, Professor Cristina Helena de Mello says that the US president works “As if it were actually a CEO of a company”. “[Ele] has opened the negotiation portfolio with several countries to benefit yours because it has a campaign commitment to make the United States big again ”analyzes the economist.
In this context, Apolinário evaluates that there is “A long -term protectionist bias”, Aligned with Trump’s speech about strengthening the US industry. The main objectives of this policy include reducing commercial deficits, increasing government collection, protecting strategic sectors, and strengthening its electoral base in the United States industrial belt.
The expert also explains that, from an electoral point of view, Trump’s strategy can expand his support between industry workers and sectors who feel harmed by international competition, such as steel and manufacturing.
He warns, however, that “There is a risk of increasing prices for consumers and reprisals of business partners, which can cause increased costs for industry, as well as criticism from other sectors of the US economy.”.
In the international scenario, the US protectionist attitude can weaken its position in global trade, lead emerging nations to strengthen alternative blocks such as BRICS, and seek new trade agreements without US participation.
“China, in particular, can benefit from this scenario by presenting itself as a more stable and predictable commercial partner for countries affected by Trump’s policy.”said the teacher.
In this sense, ambassador José Alfredo states that international trade has a natural ability to reorganize before protectionist barriers.
According to him, although the unilateral posture of the United States may initially cause a certain disorder, this situation tends to create a restructuring of global trade, allowing new partnerships and markets to strengthen.
Thus, in the medium and long term, the world economy can find ways to compensate for the impacts of US protectionist measures, reducing significant global losses.
