The obsession of Donald Trump For tariffs it is not new. In the 1980s, when he cultivated his facet as a real estate magnate with his Donjuán profile in the heart magazines, he found a way to insert himself in the country’s political conversation with his criticisms of the economic strength of Japan, Western Germany o South Korea. “I have a lot of faith in the duty”He said in an interview in 1988.“ America is being scammed. We are a debtor nation, we need taxes and tariffs to protect this country. ”A year earlier he even paid an advertisement in the country’s main newspapers suggesting the use of tariffs against the main US allies to recover the money invested in his defense.” It’s time to end our vast deficits causing Japan and others to pay us, “the announcement said.
Nothing has changed, therefore, in these last four decades. Nor his love for tariffs (“my favorite word of the dictionary”), nor his Fixing by deficits or the feeling of grievance Towards countries under the US security umbrella. But unlike what happened in his first term, when he turned to protectionism Selectively to protect a handful of industries, Trump has finally managed to universalize tariffs and go back to the path to the story. This Wednesday has announced a 10% tax for all imports from abroad and additional tariffs of different magnitude for about 60 countries, which, according to their advisors, more commercial barriers impose on US products. Trump has baptized him as “The day of liberation”, But for much of the world it will be nothing more than the beginning of a new ‘war’: a commercial war called to deeply disrupt the international trade.
“For decades, our country has been looted, prey and devalued by near and distant nations,” said the Republican during his announcement in the White House gardens. “Given the relentless economic war, the US cannot continue with a policy of unilateral economic surrender “. Trump has baptized them as “Reciprocal tariffs”, conceived to “rich again to America” and calculated based on what other countries charge US exporters, to which “other non -monetary barriers and other forms of deception” have been added. A computation to which a “discount” has been applied, he explained. For the European Union The tariff will be 20%; for China of 34%; United Kingdom, and 10%; Japanand 24%, South Korea, and 25%; Vietnam46%. And so a long etcetera.
The fear of economists
As usual, the Trump administration does not seem to have distinguished between allies and rivals. No country is saved from burning, with which the president intends reactivate the American industry, attract foreign companies or Reduce commercial deficits. Some claims that collide with the forecasts of the markets and most of the economists, who fear that tariffs – that will be paid by US importers – rise up prices and end up braking growth. The Budget Lab of Yale University estimated a few days ago that a universal tariff of 20% would end up costing US households between 3,400 and 4,200 dollars annually.
What is clear is that the experiment will serve to go back in time, at such a convulsive time as the period of interwar. Before even announcing these “reciprocal tariffs”, Trump had placed the average tariff rate in the US in 12%according to Deutsche Bank Research, the highest level since World War II.
Unprecedented for a century
But with the new levies it is called to approach the 1930 levelswhen Congress approved the Smoot-Hawley tariff law Months after the 1929 stock market and the beginning of the great depression. Far from solving problems, that law only served to aggravate the crisis When strangling international trade when necessary, according to consensus among historians. Dozens of countries responded with their own commercial barriers and world trade collapsed 60% between 1929 and 1934.
Trump is not a student in history. It tends to manipulate it, but is playing with fire. Of the success or failure of your Magic thinking The fate of Republicans will depend on the legislative of 2026.
