Research from the Genial Institute/Quaest on the 2026 presidential election released on Thursday (3) shows that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the dispute against all potential right-wing candidates in second round scenarios. Against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is ineligible until 2030, the petista is in advantage but tied at the edge of the margin of error, which is two percentage points.
In a reissue of the second round of the 2022 election, Lula has 44% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro appears with 40%. Another 3% are undecided and 13% said they intend to vote in white or null, or be absent from the claim.
Genial/Quaris conducted face -to -face interviews with 2,004 voters from 120 municipalities between March 27 and 31. The reliability index is 95%.
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Scenarios for 2026
Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro
If Lula faces former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), he would have the same 44% voting intention, while she appears with 38%. The undecided add up to 3% and another 15% of respondents said they intend to vote blank, null and null and not to go to the ballot box.
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Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas
But if the petista’s opponent is the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), Lula has 43%, while the Republican records 37% of voting intentions. Undecils add up to 4% and white and null are 16%. Compared to the previous survey by Genial/Quaro, released in January, the distance between the two that was nine percentage points fell to six.
Lula x Ratinho Júnior
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If the right candidate is the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior (PSD), the petista has seven points of advantage. In this scenario, Lula records 43% compared to 35% of the opponent. Those who do not know who would vote for are 4%, and the index of whites and nulls reaches 19%.
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Lula X Pablo Marçal
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In a clash against former Coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB), Lula has 44% of voting intentions against 35% of the influencer. White and null add up to 17% and another 4% are undecided.
Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro
If he is the right candidate in 2026, licensed federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), the former president’s son, has 34% of voting intentions in a second round scenario against Lula, which appears with 45%. Undecided add up to 4% and 17% said they prefer to vote blank or null, or not to go to the polls. In the survey made in January, Lula had 44% while Eduardo kept the same 34%.
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Lula x Romeu Zema
Already in a second round scenario between Lula and the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), the petista has 12 percentage points of advantage. The petista has 43%, while the miner appears with 31%. Undecishes add up to 5% and another 21% answered that they prefer to vote in white or null, or not go to the claim. Zema, however, grew three points compared to the January survey. Lula, in turn, has negatively oscillated two points.
Lula x Ronaldo Caiado
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In a possible second round between Lula and the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (Union), Lula has 44%, while Caiado records 30%. Among the scenarios presented by the survey, this is the highest rate of blank votes, null or voters who want to be absent (22%). Indecisive, in turn, total 4%.
Despite the distance of 14 percentage points, Lula appears constantly falling in a scenario against Caiado. In December, the intention to vote was 54% and in January, it became 45%. The governor of Goiás, in turn, had 20% and, in the last survey, reached 26%.
Methodology
Genial/Quaris also made a spontaneous survey of voting intention, where voters speak the name of preference without having access to a pre-candidate list presented by the researchers. In this clipping, Lula was cited by 9%, Bolsonaro by 7%and Tarcisio by 1%. Nine other names were cited, but did not reach 1% of the mentions. The undecided add up to 80% and 2% said they intend to vote blank or null.
