German security officials believe that Kremlin By the end of the decadeaccording to multiple reports.
The warning comes from a joint evaluation of the Federal German Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr. According to the aforementioned documents, Russia considers the West more and more a “systemic enemy” and is reconstructing its military capacity with a view to a long -term confrontation.
Although Three quarters of the Russian terrestrial forces parked near the have been deployed in Ukrainethe German authorities affirm that the Russian Navy and Air Force They keep in high availability. The BND warns that, once the war in Ukraine is completed, these units They could be quickly to threaten the NATO eastern flank.
German media Süddeutsche ZeitungWDR and NDR also cite the report, noting that the Russian president ,, It seems determined to test the guarantees of NATO. The mutual defense clause of the Alliance forces the Member States to help each other in case of attack. The evaluation suggests that Putin could try question seriousness with which said commitment would be fulfilled.
Despite the serious losses and international sanctions, Russia has accelerated its military production. The BND and the Bundeswehr believe that the Russian war economy generates more production than necessary only for operations in Ukraine. Military spending has shot up until reaching 120,000 million euros in 2025, equivalent to More than 6 % of GDP, almost quadruplying its 2021 defense budget.
Expansion is not just economical. By 2026, Russia intends to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million troops. close to NATO borders increase between 30 % and 50 % compared to 2022 levelsaccording to the German analysis.
Although German authorities warn that Russia is not yet able to fight a war large -scale against NATO in the short termthe Department of Security of the State of Lithuania (VSD) added that a Russian military action limited against one or more NATO states It is within the scope of the possible.
NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, recently reiterated the red lines of the Alliance, promising a “Devastating response” to any Russian attack against member countries such as Poland.
