The storm in the markets unleashed by the severe tariffs announced by Donald Trump and fear a. If yesterday Wall Street suffered its worst day from the pandemic (the S&P fell 4.8% and the Nasdaq 5.97%) and one of the worst in its recent history, today the descents are exacerbated in Europe, especially the Spanish Stock Exchange. Thus, the Ibex scores a fall of more than 3% this Friday and loses the 13,000 points. In other European markets, the Euro Stoxx 50 drops 1.6%, the German Dax 1.7%, the French CAC 1.4%, the British FTSE 1.3%and the AEX of the Netherlands, 0.9%. The United States futures markets anticipate more decreases today, close to 0.5%. Asian bags have also suffered strong losses: Tokyo’s Nikkei has dropped 2.8%, with China and Hong Kong rates closed by festive.
The strong weight of the bank plays against the Spanish Stock Exchange this Friday. If on Black Thursday, it was the least punished European index, since it managed to limit 1.2%punishment, today is just the opposite effect and the Spanish index decreases more than Europe. The five worst market values are the five major financial entities. Sabadell loses 8.6%, the BBVA is left almost 7%, Santander decreases more than 6%and Caixabank, 7%. The forecast of more economic weakness implies lower interest rates and lower margins. On the other side, it follows the improvement of defensive profile values. Solaria earns 1% and Cellnex, 0.85%.
The fear of investors is also felt in other assets: the performance of the US debt falls below 4%, also conditioned by the economic perspectives, it goes back to $ 3.126 after reaching a record on Thursday and the dollar continues to lose value against the, with a exchange rate of 1,1083. The oil deepens its fall and is located below 70 dollars the barrel of Brent, pressed by the decision of the OPEP+Alliance, led by Saudi and Russia Arabia, to raise its production of crude oil as of May.
Jessica Henry, Director of Investments for Variable Income of Federated Hermes Limited, points out that “uncertainty will continue”, as the markets are pending EU retaliation tariffs, the United Kingdom and other regions and other regions and the possible negotiation with the White House. “The EU could respond with measures to US exports,” says Paolo Zanghieri, a senior economist of Generali Investments, who expects tariffs to impact US more, reducing their GDP by 1.5%. Some forecasts that, in broad strokes, the analysts share: Trump’s commercial proposal will discount around a point and a half of GDP and be taken to inflation to 5%. A scenario close to the dreaded and very negative stain for markets. In parallel, bets on the cuts of interest rates to underpin economic growth increase. “Now we estimate that the Federal Reserve cut the types three times this year, up to 3.5-3.75%. We also add a third cut for the ECB, up to 1.75%,” says Zanghieri.
“If current tariffs are maintained, it is very possible that a recession occurs in the second or third quarter, as well as a bearish market,” says David Bahnsen, investment director of The Bahnsen Group. In the US, this Friday comes one of the key references of the week: the variation of non -agricultural employment and the rate in March March unemployment. Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) also appears.
What values are the ones that go up or lower?
They go down:
: -8,6%
: -7%
: -6,8%
Upload:
Solaria: 1%
Puig: +1,2%
Cellnex: +0,5%
KEYS OF THE DAY
- The escape of the risk was exacerbated last night, after Donald Trump predicted an economic bum following his tariff plan. Thus, concerns for a global recession grow. The Vix, known as “index of fear,” climbed up to 39%. There was no similar volatility since October 2022. However, although the process can be long and arduous. The commercial negotiator will talk today with Washington to insist on a solution to tariffs.
- Trump’s tariff plan contemplates a minimum global tax of 10%, which enters into force on April 5, and another called “reciprocal” for other countries or blocks, which rises to 20% in the case of the European Union and reaches 49% countries such as Cambodia.
- Mexico and Canada have been exempt, and 25%cars, previously announced, are included in the new rates. The ambiguity in the drafting of the executive order gives the administration a wide margin of maneuver in the next negotiations with the commercial partners.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the United States had abandoned his historical role as the defender of international economic cooperation. “The global economy is fundamentally different today from what it was.”
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