With signs of brakes in the fall of popularity and in view of the indefinition of his opponents, the president (PT) would win all the names supported by () if the 2026 were today, indicates research released on Saturday (5).
The survey shows that even recovering his political rights and entered the dispute, he would also be defeated by the petista. The former president is ineligible until 2030 by decision of the Electoral Justice and is a defendant on charges of leading a coup plot in 2022.
With 18 months to go, Datafolha tested five first -round scenarios with the current president. In direct confrontation against Bolsonaro, he has 36% of voting intentions, and Bolsonaro, 30%.
The institute listened to 3,054 people 16 years or older in 172 municipalities from Tuesday (1st) until Thursday (3). The error margin is two percentage points, more or less.
The scenario with Lula and Bolsonaro also includes the former governor of Ceará (PDT), with 12%; the influencer (PRTB), with 7%; and the gaucho governor (PSDB), with 5%. White, null and “none” add up to 9%, besides another 2% who could not answer.
Already on the board without Bolsonaro, Lula leads with 35% in the scenario tested with the main names of the right considered so far. Behind him comes a block that includes the governor of São Paulo, from Republicans (15%), and Ciro and Marçal (11% each).
Then appear the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), with 5%; and Eduardo Leite and Mineiro (new), with 3% each. Only pre-candidate already declared, the governor of Goiás, (União Brasil), has 2%.
The petista leads in almost all segments of age, income and education. In the cut by region, in the Northeast it goes to 50%.
Still considering this broader scenario, among voters who evaluate Lula’s mandate as bad or bad, only 2% say they would vote for the petista. Another 29% would vote for Tarcisio.
PL allies speculate that, maintaining the ineligibility of Bolsonaro, the former president would support a family member-the deputy (PL-SP) or the former first lady-and keep Tarcisio in the government.
Lula’s performance varies little in any of the scenarios tested with different Bolsonaro political heirs.
Against Eduardo, who announced self -exile in the US this month, the petista scores 35%, and the deputy, 11%, tied technically with Ciro. Already against Michelle, Lula maintains the 35%, and she marks 15%, also in a technical draw with the pedestrian.
These scenarios project that without Bolsonaro, names like Marçal, Zema, Leite and Caiado are in a block between 10% and 3% of voting intentions.
In a projection only with Tarcisio and Marçal, the petista reaches 43%, and the governor goes to 24%. In this case, Marçal marks 15%, being out of a possible second round. White and null votes add up to 16%, while 2% did not respond.
Among voters who declare themselves strongly pockets, 40% would vote in Tarcisio against Lula, in a scenario without Michelle or Eduardo. Already in a dispute between the petista and Eduardo, without Tarcisio or Michelle, the former president’s son would have 30% of the voting intentions of this group.
Lastly, if the candidate were Michelle, without Tarcisio or Eduardo, she would receive 41% of the vows of the pockets.
If they want to run for the presidency, the governors Tarcisio, Ratinho Junior, Zema, Eduardo Leite and Caiado have to resign until April next year. They, however, live different situations.
Tarcisio publicly denies that he has an interest in the dispute, but according to allies he has admitted that he will compete if Bolsonaro asks. Ratinho is praised by the president of his party, “who supports both the Lula government and Tarcisio’s,” but says a candidacy would have “a long way to go.”
Zema and Eduardo Leite, in turn, admit to participating in the dispute. From this group, only Tarcisio exercises his first term and can try reelection.
Datafolha’s survey indicates that the voter’s interest in the dispute is still low. In spontaneous questioning – the mention of names – 52% of Brazilians said they did not know who to vote for.
Lula also leads in this poll, cited by 20% (besides 1% who answered “in the current president” and 1% more he said “in the PT” or “in the PT candidate”). Bolsonaro, even ineligible, appears with 14%. Tarcisio and Ciro have 1% each, and the others were not cited.
In terms of rejection, Aversion to Lula follows high: 42% say they would not vote for him at all. It’s just no worse numerically than Bolsonaro, which has 44%.
Among the former president’s close allies, Tarcisio numerically presents the lowest rejection: 13%say they would not vote for him, while Michelle scores 27%, and Eduardo Bolsonaro, 26%.
