An eventual election to the presidency in 2026 without () nor () would have tangled in the dispute the former governor of Ceará (), the governor of, (Republicans), and the Minister of Finance, (PT), shows the latest research.
If your name is in the ballot box, it wins in all scenarios tested in the research. Against Bolsonaro, he would have 36% of the votes, compared to 30% of the former Mandanitor.
Datafolha interviewed 3,054 people 16 years or older in 172 Brazilian municipalities from Tuesday (1st) until Thursday (3). The margin of error is two percentage points for more or less.
The petista is appointed as the only ruling alternative to his own succession, but has said that reasons beyond his will, such as health, can make an candidacy for reelection unfeasible.
Bolsonaro, in turn, even claiming to be a candidate, is ineligible and responds to an action in the (Supreme Court) on charges of leading the 2022 coup plot, which can increase time away from.
Without the two current protagonists of national polarization, Datafolha shows that Ciro would have 19%, Tarcisio, 16%, and Haddad, 15%.
Thus, Ciro would be technically tied with Tarcisio, and this one with Haddad. In comparison between the former governor of Ceará and the current finance minister, the draw is considered unlikely, since the difference is at the maximum limit of the margin of error.
Ciro has played four presidential elections since the 1990s and the last, in 2022, was in four place, with 3% of the valid votes.
Tarcisio defeated Haddad in the São Paulo government elections in 2022 with the support of Bolsonaro and is pointed out, in the political environment, as the main name to run for the presidency next year by the right field if the former president maintains ineligibility. Haddad, in turn, is also regarded as Lula’s most likely political heir – he played in the 2018 presidential election, taking second place.
The survey also tested the influencer (PRTB), who obtained 12% of voting intentions, also in a technical draw with Haddad.
In this scenario, the research shows that, with less force, come the governors of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD, with 7%); from Rio Grande do Sul, (PSDB, with 5%); from Minas Gerais, (new, with 3%); and from Goiás, (União Brasil, 2%).
In a scenario without Lula in the dispute, but with Bolsonaro, the former president leads with 32%, and then would come Ciro, with 20%, and Haddad, with 17%.
Datafolha also pointed out that after changes in federal government communication and announcements such as sending the income tax exemption congress to those who earn up to $ 5,000 ,.
Between petistas, he wondered if he, now 79, would launch a new candidacy if he was not sure of the victory.
According to Datafolha, in the scenario without Lula and Bolsonaro, Haddad loses to Ciro in the Northeast, where the preference for the current president is higher. In this region, the former governor has 27% of voting intentions, compared to 18% of the Minister of Finance and 12% of Tarcisio. The margin of error in this group is four points.
Already in the Southeast, where the majority of the electorate is, it is Tarcisio who does better, with 21%of voting intentions, followed by Ciro, with 17%, tied technically with Haddad, which marks 16%. The margin of error in the region is two points.
Tarcisio has an advantage over Haddad in another petism -sensitive electorate: the segment. The governor of São Paulo has 18% of voting intentions in this group; Following, Ciro scores 13%, and the Minister of Finance, only 8%. The margin of error in this segment is four points.
The survey also indicates that 62% of the electorate believes that Lula will participate in the dispute next year – if 40% say they are sure.
On the other hand, 37% of respondents said that if the president does not compete, he should support Haddad.
Haddad and Ciro have a higher rejection rate than that of rivals. In all, 22% of respondents said they would not vote at all in the minister, who was mayor of São Paulo and lost the last elections to the state government. In the case of the former governor of Ceará, 18% said they would not vote for him. In the case of Tarcisio, the index is 13%.
