After reaching R $ 6.30 at the end of 2024, the cash dollar accumulates more than 6% in 2025 and operates below R $ 5.80. Despite the appreciation of the real, analysts warn that external uncertainties, fiscal instability, and the behavior of foreign exchange flows can limit the continuity of the movement.
An uncertain external environment, at risk of stronger deceleration from the American economy due to trade war, and the return of political and domestic tax noise may limit appetite for the Brazilian currency. On the technical side, there are also doubts around the exchange rate flow, even with the boarding of the agricultural crop, and the continuity of the dismantling of positions purchased in dollar from foreign investors in currency derivatives.
The dollar retreat in the first quarter was linked above all abroad. At the start of his administration, Donald Trump adopted a less aggressive posture than expected in relation to commercial tariffs. And most importantly, the thesis of American exception, with mass migration of capital to the United States, was put in check by stumbling the “Bigh Techs” after the rise of the Chinese Artificial Intelligence company Deepseek.
“American exceptionalism was a consensus at the end of last year. But investors’ perception has changed, leading emerging coins and the euro to perform well at the beginning of the year,” says Az Quest Macro manager Gustavo Menezes, adding that during this period stimulus measures were also announced and the tax package in Europe, with expansion of military spending. “All chips, which at the end of last year went to the same pot, began to be spread over more regions.”
It is not possible to know if there is room for the continuity of this portfolio diversification movement in the coming months. Emerging currencies, such as the real, may suffer from increased risk aversion and security search, if the trade war translates into a prospect of acute deceleration or even recession in the US. A warning sign came last week, when Latin American currency stumbled upon expectation for the announcement on Wednesday, 2, of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
“If the feeling is that tariffs will not be very strong in the activity, especially global activity, emerging and real borders can continue to be appreciated. But for now, uncertainty is very large, and we see a break from this dollar fall movement here,” says Western Asset chief economist Adauto Lima.
Position dismantling
The first quarter was marked by a global dismantling of dollar positions and falling bags in New York, with investors looking for discounted assets. B3 data show that non -residents have reduced the end of the year by more than $ 30 billion the position bought in dollar through currency derivatives (future dollar, mini contract, swap and currency coupon), which today is just over $ 40 billion.
This point made Real appreciated even with the country’s dollar departure. Central Bank consolidated data until mid -March show that the total flow by 2025 is negative by more than $ 10 billion, with a net outlet of over $ 13 billion in the financial segment. Commercial entrances were below the traditional volume for the first months of the year.
There are doubts about both the continuity of the dollar position dismantling movement and the improvement of currency flow, which can restrain more blunt bets on the continuity of the real’s appreciation movement, analysts point out.
“The expectation is that the commercial balance and the flow as a whole will start to recover because of the export of the crop. On the other hand, the financial flow has been more negative, with the weight of services and investments as cryptocurrencies,” says Menezes, from AZ Quest, noting that there are also doubts about the level of internalization of resources by exporters. “We have seen a big difference between the contracted exchange and the embarked in recent years.”
Political and tax noises
The horizon for the Brazilian currency is also turned through the return of political and tax noise throughout March. Doubts about the fiscal neutrality of the so -called income reform and there is some discomfort with measures seen as populist, such as the recent release of FGTS balance and the new private payroll loans.
For Integral Group chief economist Daniel Miraglia, Brazilian actives, such as Bolsa and Real, were very “discounted” at the end of last year and recovered even without any improvement in the foundations of the country.
“Real and the scholarship itself are not so attractive now. Investors should be more sensitive to political and fiscal news,” says Miraglia, who sees growing risks that the government gives a populist turn if there is no recovery of Lula’s popularity. “The signs are that the government can double the bet on populism.”
“We have already started to see an impact on the behavior of the dollar because of the fiscal issue in some trading sessions. This happened with the announcement of measures such as FGTS release and the approval of the 2025 budget, which brings very optimistic revenue forecasts to ensure primary result goals,” says Corretora Monte Bravo, Luciano Costa, who sees the dollar returning to $ 6 to the end of the year.
Selic effect
Menezes, from Az Quest, also sees the political and fiscal issue as a point of attention, but it ponders that it is very costly betting against the real, due to the so -called loading cost. Those who support dollar positions give up the earnings of local interest rates.
He notes that the last signs of the Central Bank, such as the message of the minutes of the most recent Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), are that the monetary tightening cycle continues. Reading is that the Selic rate, today at 14.25%, can rise at least one more step and be around 15% for a prolonged period.
“We will have 12 to 18 months of very contraction of interest, with a very relevant internal and external interest differential, which brings some protection to the real. But I still maintain a neutral position in relation to currency because there are many uncertainties,” says Menezes, who, for now, maintains projection of dollar at $ 6.00 at the end of the year.
