Petista has 36% against 30% of the former president, who is ineligible; Ciro Gomes records 12% and Marçal, 7%, according to the survey
The President (PT) leads the scenarios for the 2026 presidential elections when tested against the main names on the right, says Datafolha survey conducted from April 1st to 3rd and released on Saturday (5.br.2025).
In simulation stimulated with the former president (PL), the petista would have 36%, compared to 30% of his predecessor-which is ineligible by (Superior Electoral Court). The difference is above the error margin of 2 percentage points, more or less. (PDT), with 12%, (PRTB), with 7%, and (PSDB), with 5%, come in sequence.
Here are the numbers of the 1st simulation presented by Datafolha:
- Lula (PT): 36%
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 30%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 12%
- Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 7%
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): 5%
- White/null/None: 9%
- did not know: 2%
The newspaper company S.Paulo Folha heard 3,056 people in 172 municipalities from April 1 to 3, 2025. The margin of error of the survey is 2 percentage points for more or less.
Other scenarios
Without Bolsonaro, Lula widens the margin between him and the 2nd place. In a 2nd simulation, the petista would have 35% against 15% of the governor of São Paulo, (Republicans).
Here’s the numbers:
- Lula (PT): 35%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 15%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 11%
- Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 11%
- Junior Mouse (PSD): 5%
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): 3%
- Romeu low (Novo): 3%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Brazil Union): 2%
- White/null/none: 11%
- did not know: 3%
In the 3rd simulation, with Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), the former president’s son points out 11%, against 35% of Lula, in the lead, and 12% of Ciro Gomes (PDT), in 2nd place numerically and tied on the margin with the congressman.
Here’s the numbers:
- Lula (PT): 35%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 12%
- Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL): 11%
- Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 10%
- Junior Mouse (PSD): 6%
- Romeu low (Novo): 4%
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): 4%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Brazil Union): 3%
- White/null/none: 12%
- do not know: 3%
Already in a scenario with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), the scenario is as follows:
- Lula (PT): 35%
- Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 15%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 12%
- Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 10%
- Junior Mouse (PSD): 5%
- Romeu low (Novo): 4%
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): 3%
- Ronaldo Caiado (Brazil Union): 3%
- White/null/none: 10%
- do not know: 2%
In a more restricted test, Datafolha tested Lula, Tarcisio and Marçal. The result shows that the 2 names on the right together score 39%, against 43% of the petista. Here’s the numbers:
- Lula (PT): 43%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 24%
- Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 15%
- White/null/none: 16%
- do not know: 2%
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