It was one diplomatic mission catastrophic. The British envoy, George Macartneyhe went to Beijing with the latest technological inventions of the time to propose a commercial relationship to that vast country with delicate silks and porcelain. Emperor Qianlong replied that they already had all the necessary assets and in “prolific abundance” so he did not see the grace to change them for those who offered him “the barbarians.”
Almost two and a half centuries later Europe returns in full to look at the Empire of the medium. It is China, qualified as “systemic rival” by Brussels, now its float in the tariff storm. American protectionism advises new destinations and the alternative seems evident. Chinaafter all, the American population and even a ridiculous portion of their market would fix the annual balance.
But China is no longer that decadent country that the emperor hid with its arrogance. Has exercised for decades of global factorycapable of flooding the world of manufactures with the greatest productive structure in history, and after its technological turn of recent years the Leadership to the West In areas such as robotics, artificial intelligence, 5G networks or renewable energies. In some fields, such as electric vehicles, the Chinese advantage is so insurmountable that Brussels has only been able to defend oneself with tariffs. Nor does Europe have the natural, mineral or oil resources that its economic boiler needs. The question is in force: what can you sell you Europe to China?
It will be basically what it sells now. Its main shipments are machinery and vehicles (51%), manufactured goods (20%) and chemicals (17%). Export architecture has fed The Balancia imbalancethat matter that Solivianta to Donald Trump. The EU sold goods to China by 213 billion euros And bought them for 517 billion last year. Only Ireland and Luxembourg They enjoy commercial surplus with China. The Yiwu-Madrid merchandise train, more than 13,000 kilometers throughout eight countries, underlines that trend: 170 convoys departed from the Chinese city towards the Spanish and just 97 in the opposite direction.
Europe has always looked at the United States. Think that when you close that market you can endorse all these products to the Chinese is chimeric
“The Chinese already know what we have. For China to replace the United States as a commercial partner, it would be necessary for the First it opened your markets and what Europa will change your export pattern. That is not achieved overnight. Spain sells cars in the United States but they have no market here, “says an expert in international trade in Beijing. He only intuits a margin of growth in the health sector and in the scarce where Chinese technology still laziness such as industrial machinery or car parts or rail. It does not expect that the European export flow will overflow although an increase in reciprocal investments.
“If the Chinese buy you less than Americans it is simply because they are not so interested what you offer,” explains Alberto Lebrón, a doctor of economy for the Universidad de Pekín. “Europe has always looked at the United States. Thinking that when you close that market you can endorse all these products to the Chinese is chimeric,” he adds.
Obstacles to the exchange of products
China will not shoot its total import volume because neither its population nor the current one will spend with self -confidence in this picture of uncertainties. The question, then, is not what China wants to buy from Europe, but if it can fill out the void that the United States will leave when the stratospheric cross -tariffs collapse their bilateral trade. Success demands a similar export pattern and a look at American agricultural shipments to China helps to refine the prognosis.
Almost half of the total, about 25 billion dollars, the soy, corn and sorghum are monopolized. They are followed by meat products, with 10%, and dairy products. Europe lacks the former. It does have a volume in the meats but the industry It faces serious difficulties in China. On the one hand, its processes protocols, studied by country and product, which contemplate the sending of officials to examine the facilities. On the other, animal diseases such as the blue language suffering from European cattle. Space It can only export pig and almost no European country has received the green light for beef.
Cars in the port of Los Angeles affected by Trump’s tariff policy. / Kyle Grillot / Bloomberg
China will continue being a relevant commercial partner of Europe But it will not fix Trump’s mess. It lacks the ability to absorb the loss of American consumer, culturally more related to the European, and also bets Beijing in recent years for self -sufficiency. It is an old lament of Spanish diplomacy that its business only comes to China in despairwithout elementary knowledge of its market or culture but with the urgency of results, a formula that ensures disaster. It should not be forgotten.
