Australian study estimates severe impact on the world’s per capita GDP if temperature rises to 4 ° C
A study released in the magazine Environmental Research Letters on Monday (31.mar.2025) indicates that an increase of 4 ° C at global temperature could decrease the average richness of people by 40%. Research shows that, even achieving short and long term objectives in greenhouse gas emission, global temperatures should rise 2.1 ° C. Here is the full ( – – 2MB).
Australian scientists responsible for the study also suggest that an increase of at least 2 ° C could reduce GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to happen global at 16%. The numbers exceed previous estimates of the climate crisis, which provided for a reduction of only 1.4% in the per capita index with the same increase.
Timothy Neal, from the University of New South Wales and the main author of the research, highlighted the failure of previous models to consider as extreme events, as droughts and floods, affect global supply chains. The research has enhanced a popular economic model, including climate change forecasts to assess the impact of extreme climate events.
“Since international trade is fundamental to the supply chains of economic production, it is reasonable to expect a country’s future economic growth to be influenced by weather conditions around the world.”says the research.
Although some economists suggest that global warming and climate crisis could benefit cooler regions, the study points out that the negative impact will be global due to the interconnection of economies.
