How will Portugal be affected by Trump’s fares? Five sectors run more risks

The US is one of the main destinations of Portuguese exports, occupying fourth place among the “customers” of Portugal. But what impact will Donald Trump’s rates have on our economy?

The US is the “Main Extracommunity Partner ”from Portugalrepresenting “6.8% of the total of our property exports“Considering data from 2023, as noted, economist Gabriela Castro, which is part of Banco de Portugal’s Department of Economic Studies (BDP), in statements in“ ”.

A – Portugal’s Investment and Foreign Trade Agency stresses that “the US is The fourth client in PortugalAnd that, in January this year, they were our 11th supplier.

In 2024, Portuguese exports to the US represented “5,318.3 million eurosAnd “imports rose 7.3% to 2,416 million euros, with a Positive trade balance balance for Portugal In 2,902.3 million euros, ”according to AICEP data.

“Os chemicals They represented a quarter (24.9%) of total US sales in 2024, totaling 1,324.2 million euros ”, according to AICEP.

Already in January this year, “exports of chemicals to the US added 70.2 million euros”, “with a weight of 21.3%followed by two mineral fuels (Weight of 14.8%, totaling 48.9 million euros) ”, according to the same agency.

“Sales of Plastics and Rubber They were the third best selling product (weight of 11.5%), totaling 37.8 million euros, ”adds AICEP.

In the list of Main exported Portuguese products For the US, there are “oil or bituminous minerals”, “new, rubber tire, among others,” as AICEP.

There are “countries with much greater dependence” from the US than Portugal

Analyzing the weight of Portuguese exports to the US in terms of Portuguese GDP, “Portugal is in an intermediate position in the context of the European Union,” says economist Gabriela Costa in “BDP Podcast”.

In 2023, “Exports of goods represented About 2% of Portuguese GDPwhile there are EU countries where they have a “significantly smaller” impact, as are the cases of Cyprus that “has a weight of 0.4%”, and Malta“With 0.6%,” says Gabriela Castro.

But there is also “countries with a much greater dependenceas is the case with Belgiumwith 5.6%, and the case of Irelandcom 10,1%”.

What impact can rates have on our country?

At this point, it is still premature to assume what will be the real impact of those announced by Donald Trump on the products imported from the European Union (EU).

But Banco de Portugal (BDP) already anticipated the negative effect that is right – although it is not yet possible to advance how serious it will be.

In that BDP forecasting document, it was estimated that the “global impact” of Trump’s imposed shock would lead to a “Cumulative Reduction of GDP [Produto Interno Bruto] around 1,1% At the end of three years, with the effects concentrated in the first two years. ”

The institution stressed in the document that, “in addition to the direct effects of the imposition of tariffs, the increase in commercial barriers generates a more uncertain environment, with negative repercussions on trust of economic agents, the result of the unpredictability of future commercial policies, their scale and duration, the possibility of retaliatory measures and the induced volatility in the costs of production and the prices of goods ”.

All this will take, inevitably the “a reduction of investment and private consumption“It also analyzed the BDP.

Economist Gabriela Castro, who was involved in the preparation of BDP’s March Bulletin, stresses that this “very unstable environment”, “reduces confidence” and retracts consumption, with direct effect on economic activity.

With the “reduction of economic activity in countries affected by tariffs”, Global demand is also affected, notes the economist, concluding that this will affect families’ performancedue to possible scenarios of increased unemployment and increased prices of assets.

The 5 Portuguese sectors most exposed to tariffs

The BDP newsletter also identified the five most exposed national sectors Trade with the US, and therefore may suffer more from tariffs.

The exporting companies of Textile manufacture and from non -metallic mineral products (which includes glass, ceramic products and cement) have “high exposure to the US market”, considering the 2023 export numbers, the BDP pointed out.

“The industries of beveragesof the computer, communications, electronic and optical equipment and leather industry And their products also had a relevant percentage of companies with high exposure to the US market, ”adds the same bulletin.

However, the impact in these and other sectors may be different, according to the reality of each company individuallyand according to how they prepared, or not, for tariffs, as noted by economist João Amador, who also integrates the Department of Economic Studies of the BDP.

But there are cases of companies where the American market It is “absolutely fundamental”and that can, therefore, suffer more, analyzes John Amador in the “BDP Podcast”.

What can companies do?

“Exporting companies will be able to mitigate this effect reducing your prices selling, compressing its profit margin“Note the BDP March Bulletin.

Another possible solution, in the case of multinational companies, goes through “Creation of productive capacity in the USA“With the creation of production facilities in this country, the BDP is still awarding. This will meet Trump’s strategy that wants to recover the US industry.

But companies can also be indirectly affectedeven if they do not export products directly to the US. After all, we live in a “globalized world”, where “the production of many goods is distributed to several countries, with each country to specialize” in a given area, with the notes Gabriela Castro.

The economist sets the example of Automobile productionnoting that “a car can have components that are manufactured in different countriesand can be assembled in another country. ”

Thus, “automotive component suppliers, even if they do not sell to the US, can see the demand for their products to decrease,” he says, stressing that the national automotive industry can also be affected.