In the scenario of the petista with Bolsonaro, current president would have 9 points of advantage; Also battery Michelle and Eduardo
The president (PT) would today have 48% of voting intentions in a 2nd round scenario for the 2026 presidential elections against the governor of São Paulo (Republicans), which points out 39%. The data are survey conducted from April 1st to 3rd and released this Saturday (5.ab.2025).
Here are the numbers presented in the 1st simulation:
- Lula (PT): 48%
- Tarcisio (Republicans): 39%
- White/null/None: 13%
- do not know: 1%
Datafolha also tested a scenario between Lula and the former president (PL)-which is ineligible by (Superior Electoral Court). In this case, the petista would have 49%, against 40% of the predecessor:
- Lula (PT): 49%
- Bolsonaro (PL): 40%
- White/null/none: 10%
- do not know: 1%
The newspaper company S.Paulo Folha heard 3,056 people in 172 municipalities from April 1 to 3, 2025. The margin of error of the survey is 2 percentage points for more or less.
Other scenarios
In a direct dispute between Lula and (PL), the result today would be as follows:
- Lula (PT): 50%
- Michelle (PL): 38%
- White/null/none: 12%
- do not know: 1%
Against the licensed deputy (PL), the petista would do even better and would have 17 points advantage, according to the study:
- Lula (PT): 51%
- Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL): 34%
- White/null/None: 14%
- do not know: 1%
In a scenario without Lula and with (PT) facing (Republicans), the petista would have 43% against 37% of the São Paulo governor:
- Haddad (PT): 43%
- Tarcisio (Republicans): 37%
- White/null/none: 17%
- do not know: 3%
Already in a dispute between Haddad and Bolsonaro – reclaiming what happened in 2018 – the survey indicates a technical draw on the edge margin limit (2 pp):
- Haddad (PT): 45%
- Bolsonaro (PL): 41%
- White/null/None: 13%
- do not know: 1%
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