“If elections were held today, I appreciate that the opposition candidate – whatever it is – may be its next president,” the leading Turkish analyst, the leading Turkish analyst, said in “Vima”, Murat Getkindescribing the elections over time “medicine” in his country for political tensions.
“But the president would not want to call early elections before he succeeds in relieving the financial crisis or an open support of the pro -Kurdish DEM,” the “veteran” journalist adds, at the same time, at the same time, that Donald Trump’s indifference to the quality of Donald Trump.
-First of all, the latest developments focusing on Mr Imamoglou constitute a constitutional diversion or simply confirm long -term unconstitutional practices in the country? Is democracy really in danger in Turkey?
“We have seen a similar incident in the past, when the candidacy of current President Tayyip Erdogan was blocked in the late 1990s by a court ruling that banned his involvement with politics. He was unable to enter Parliament in the 2002 elections, although the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he founded, won the election and formed a government. It took a constitutional amendment in 2003 to be able to enter Parliament and become Turkey’s prime minister.
The case has differences. First of all, there is a series of court cases against him, who are pregnant with the possibility of his political prohibition since he first won the Metropolitan Mayor of Constantinople in 2019 on behalf of the Official Opposition. Winning again in 2024 it was obvious that he had secured popular support and sympathy to stand against Erdogan in the next presidential election.
Democratic life in Turkey has always had ups and downs, this is not the first time we have observed something similar. The difference is that this time the government is not confronted with spontaneous masses. The main opposition promotes organized and legal resistance. “
-You do not see this social upheaval having the elements of a social transformation and Gen Zwhich pioneered the mobilizations, be able to become a carrier of change?
“I think it would be very difficult to maintain this kind of gatherings. It is not a revolution what we observe. It is a strong wave of protests. I believe that the demonstrations for Imamoglou showed that the “fear of the street”, which the opposition had, after the demonstrations in Guez in 2013, was “broken”. But his arrest is not the only cause of current fever.
It is the combination of the general reaction to the long -time annoying accumulation of judicial decisions, which are considered politicized, until the cost of living that led to the financial crisis. The cancellation of Imamoglou’s degree, for example, was the drop that overflowed the glass for students. But it would be an exaggeration to conclude a social transformation, exclusively based on demonstrations for Imamoglou. “
-What factors will be essential to short -term and medium -term developments in the country?
“The economy is the leading factor for everything. We can also add PKK disarmament policy. Could start a real transformation if it succeeds. Both are closely linked to President Erdogan’s plans to be able to re -elected president. “
– Has Imamoglu finally missed the opportunity to be a candidate in the upcoming presidential election? Who can be a candidate for Chp? Can Erdogan win?
«If Imamoglou is completely excluded, Mansus Yavas, Ankara’s metropolitan mayor, will be the next obvious goal. If similar blockage arises in Yavas, Ozel could be a candidate. But all this is open to speculations right now. “
-It is likely for Ankara Mayor Mansour Giavas to be ruled out by the presidential race, Tok Republican People’s Party to be considered illegal, complaints for fraud in the 2024 intra -party elections, and Imamoglou to forget about him, HDP pro -Kokurd partySalahattin Demirtas?
“Everything is possible on paper, but it’s not easy in practice, as the recent wave of protests showed. But, yes, no chance of the above can be ruled out. “
-Could early elections be a way out of this political crisis or not? Is it a scenario that President Erdogan can choose?
“The elections have been in Turkey over time for political tensions. Erdogan would not want early elections before he succeeds in relieving the financial crisis or an open support for the DEM. “
-What party benefits from recent developments? AKP voters remain silent. Is Mr Erdogan losing their support or not? Is the percentage of undecided? If there were elections at the moment who would prevail?
“If elections were held today, I appreciate that the opposition candidate – whatever it is – may be the next president of Turkey. But if you ask the same question in two months, I can’t be as sure. Now it seems that CHP has benefited more with about a 3% increase in its rate. In Turkey these winds can change quickly.
For example, when Assad was overthrown in Syria and Ankara upgraded its relations with Damascus, in the intention of voting, the AKP was coming to the first party. This lasted only two months. Now the CHP is coming first party. This can change again depending on possible developments. “
– Will internal developments in Turkey halt negotiations with Europe for defense cooperation?
“This is the irony. The crisis has already begun to influence political relations with the EU, but I cannot say the same about security and defense cooperation when it comes to tackling Russia and immigration. What you ask depends on the level of hypocrisy of European policies. “
-What is exactly the influence of Donald Trump on domestic Turkish politics?
“In a sense, it relates to the continuation of US support in PKK implications in Syria. They are not excluded in the meantime. Ankara wants to disarm the PKK, with the ability to then incorporate it into Turkish political life. Washington wants to do the same with Hamas in Gaza. Another point is that Trump is not particularly interested in the quality of democracy, as long as American interests are served. And this could give Erdogan to maneuver.
However, Trump’s real impact may be in Turkish foreign policy. It is not just Turkey with US expectations, there are also US expectations. For example, those related to Irene Azerbaijan-Armenia, which includes Russia and Iran’s policies, the security of the Black Sea, which concerns both Russia and Ukraine, the possible cooperation in Africa, in competition with China, Central Asia, the Rare Gaes. “
