The European Union He faces not only the challenge of rearming, but of finding a formula on how to finance it, a need that arose with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has intensified in recent times by international tensions, such as the return of Donald Trump To the White House. The expense in defense in Europe already reaches the 1.9% of GDP in 2024but European leaders not only recognize that investment must be much greatersino immediate. This forces them to explore various financing formulas, each with pros and cons that complicate the way to a greater Military autonomy.
THE PLAN ‘ReArm Europe’proposed by the European Commissionintends to mobilize some 800,000 million euros In the next four years to reinforce EU defense capabilities. The debate remains open about how much of this financing must proceed from the increase in national spending in defense and security of the Member States, and how much will put the UEeither directly or indirectly.
On the table there are various options to finance the European rearma. The current proposal includes loans for 150,000 million euros supported by the EU, obtained in capital markets, as well as Additional fiscal marginwhich would allow member states to contract debt to finance defense without violating the rules on debt and deficit. To achieve these objectives, the EU evaluates three main strategies: use frozen Russian assets, issue common bonds and start the Loan program For a rearma that is not willing to take more.
One of the main options presented by the commission to finance the rearme of the twenty -seven is a package of loans of 150,000 million euros To help Member States to finance military investments. The Loans would be managed by the European Investment Bank (BEI) and individually reimbursed, avoiding the direct debt of the UE.
Although this option avoids collective indebtedness, countries with high public debt They could be reluctant to assume more loans, and the richest nations could benefit disproportionately, expanding differences in defense capacity.
Another option that is being studied is the issuance of European debt bondssimilar to the recovery fund NextGenerationEU of 750,000 million euros. The European Commission I could raise funds on financial markets and distribute them among the Member States For defense expenses.
However, this proposal would face the strong opposition of fiscally conservative countries such as Germany y The Netherlandswhich argue that it could increase the load of the global debt of the UE. However, the objective of issuing bonds worth 800,000 million euros It could be excessively ambitious. Some also argue that the increase in collective debt would require a new system of taxes o Budget contributions for all UE.
The reorientation of the benefits of frozen Russian assets. The UE He has already seized 210,000 million euros In reserves of the Russian central banks, and, instead of confiscating the principal, the possibility of using the interests and returns generated by these funds is being considered.
This measure, which could generate several billions of euros per year For defense, it looks as a form of direct support in which money from the Russian apparatus The defense of Russian occupation in Ukraine is redirected. However, the legal complexities And the fear of retaliation Russia have delayed its implementation. Besides, worry that sitting such previous can scare other third countries to deposit their assets in European territory.
Although a definitive decision has not yet been made, the European leaders intensify negotiations in the coming months about defense financing, in a context of growing pressure to increase weapons production, strengthen supply chains and modernize military capacities in response to the Russian war in Ukraine and the distancing of the United States from the arrival of Trump to the White House.
EU leaders must evaluate the Financial viabilitylos Legal risks and the political limitations of possible options. As the security scenario in Europe evolves, the capacity of the UE To mobilize resources effectively will be key to determining its strategic autonomy in long -term defense.
