The new summary, through variables that point to opposite directions, the Brazilian political scenario of the second half of the government and its succession. The perception of the economy? It goes bad. The government? It has been worse, but it has also been better, and its future sounds unjustly auspicious with the population. In opposition, the most viable name electoral is unfeasible legally.
After the fall of the year, when he saw his positive assessment restricted to 24%of the country’s adult population and his rejection rises to unpublished levels (41%), the Lula government reaches April well seen by a slightly larger portion of Brazilians (29%), and poorly evaluated by a contingent very close to its worst moment (38%).
Given the persistent negative balance, the current agent remains to greet the fact that these curves do not continue to open in the graph that will be determining to demonstrate strength in the construction of besides, the indices are sufficient to make it leader of the still distant succession.
Among the segments that guaranteed the advance in the positive evaluation of the government are those that in Brazil have a family income above two minimum wages, which means being in the less poor half of the country. In these higher income strata, the government recovered, in April, positive evaluation rates similar to those who had been registering in the first half of the term.
Brazilians with family income above two salaries used a positive assessment to the lower government than in the slice with lace less than this amount, Lula’s Popularity Mattress.
Now, the indexes align, since the positive view of the government was stagnant precisely among the poorest, after falling 14 points compared to December. In other words, momentary relief came from a generally suspicious segment of petista management, while its more faithful audience did not give it the custom credit again
In June 2005, after two years and six months of his first term, Lula also faced a bad moment, when he saw his positive assessment fall ten percentage points in six months (from 45% to 35%) and a strong association of his government with corruption, with possible relationship with the case
It reached the end of the third year of the first term with 28% positive evaluation, an index close to what it has today. On the other hand, its negative assessment has never been 29%, while the portion of those who evaluated their government in a regular basis ranged from 40%to 45%from 2003 to 2005.
Today, your biggest challenge is economical. Generally speaking, 55% estimate that the country’s economic situation has worsened in recent months, 34% see a worsening in their own economic situation and, to 36%, the country’s economy will deteriorate further in the coming months. Since the second half of 2022 Brazilians have not been so pessimistic.
On the opposition side, (PL) is still the strongest name, with when considering the margin of error of the survey (30% to 36%) in the first round scenario.
Inelegable and about to face a trial that can put it in prison, the former president is in parity with the current in the rejection: 44% would not vote for Bolsonaro, and 42% discard Lula. Despite the statements confirming their candidacy, most Brazilians and support another candidate, a feeling shared by 30% of those who consider themselves pockets.
The current scenario is much more difficult for Lula than in May 2021, when leading with 18 points about Bolsonaro in voting intentions (41% to 23%) and via his opponent to open the same distance in the rejection (54% to 36%).
It will be up to the other names that in fact can dispute the Planalto to take advantage of the aversion to the petista without attracting to themselves the repulsion to the former captain. For this, they must also be aware of public perception of the dispute guidelines, such as the existing amnesty rejection of those involved on January 8.
The act on Paulista Avenue to defend the issue, with the presence of Bolsonaro and governors of seven states, gathered, according to Datafolha, – significant public, but well below the great protests that have already passed the avenue.
