Three weeks ago it has not appeared in public. The Chinese government has done little to clarify the situation. Theses: It has disappeared because it is suspected of things; disappeared because you are preparing military exercises in a sensitive place
Because the absence of China’s second most graduated general is feeding speculation
analysis of Nectar GanCNN
Chinese Military Officers in brown uniforms spread around youthful trees, digging ground in pits finished digging. The filming chamber shows the highest patent leaders, one after the other. But a prominent face is conspicuously absent.
A news program broadcast on Wednesday night by Chinese state channel shows a tree planting campaign around the Capital Beijing – an annual spring tradition of the country’s military leadership that has existed for over four decades.
But General He Wedong, the second most graduated officer in the Popular Liberation Army (EPL), was not seen anywhere. Nor was it mentioned as a participant in a report by the State Official Noticious Agency.
The absence of General He at the high -level event has fueled the speculation that the second vice president of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC) may have become the latest – and most important – victim of the armed forces’ upper echelons by the head of state, Xi Jinping.
As General number 2 of Xi, he has a longtime relationship with the Chinese leader who dates back to the early days of his careers in the Fujian coastal province.
Rumors of an investigation against He first emerged among the Chinese dissident community after China’s annual political meetings last month. Three weeks ago, he, 67, has not appeared in public, since the closing ceremony of the country’s legislature on 11 March.
The Chinese government has done little to clarify the situation.
When asked about He, at a press conference on March 27, the Ministry of Defense spokesman Wu Qian said: “There is no information on this issue and we are not aware of the situation.”
Currently, it is unknown what HE happened, which is also part of the Communist Party’s 24 members.
Three weeks out of public eyes are not unpublished for a top general without public functions and there is always the possibility of appearing again. But its not comparance in a well-choreographed annual propaganda event stands out in a political system deeply attuned to the importance of symbolism.
“It is evident that the absence of a vice president of CMC is important from a symbolic point of view,” says James Char, a longtime specialist at EPL and assistant professor at the School of International Studies S. Rajaratnam (RSIS) in Singapore.
Like the congresses of the Communist Party and the annual political meetings of “two sessions”, “it is important that all the main figures that the rest of the world know appear to be in the same photography, because it helps to demonstrate power and – most important – the unity of the party,” says Char.
Read the “leaves of the trees”
In the opaque world of Chinese politics, observers have long leaned on mysterious signals from the Communist Party’s traditions and protocol to interpret what is happening behind the scenes. The discipline, known as “reading leaves”, has become more relevant than ever in the age of Xi, as it centralizes power in its own hands and makes the decision-making process even darker.
And now some experts are analyzing this week’s events in search of clues about the fate of one of Xi’s main generals.
The annual ritual began as part of a national tree planting campaign, launched by the late Supreme Leader Deng Xiaoping in late 1981, following devastating flooding that attributed unbridled deforestation. The campaign was presented as a patriotic and altruistic initiative to “make the homeland more green, build socialism and benefit future generations.”
In the next spring, Deng, then president of CMC, planted the first tree of the campaign, establishing a tradition that has since been pursued by the successive Chinese leaders and the high military patents.
Wednesday marked “the 43rd consecutive year in which CMC’s leadership participated collectively in voluntary tree planting activity in the capital,” said Xinhua, the state news agency.
Since Xi came to power at the end of 2012, his two CMC vice presidents led military officers to plant trees without missing all spring-to the rare absence of He on Wednesday.
CMC’s first vice president, General Zhang Youxia, attended the event, such as two other commission generals, Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin.
The only other CMC member who did not attend was Admiral Miao Hua, who was suspended under investigation in November for “serious violations of discipline” – a common euphemism for corruption and disloyalty.
“I think his absence is quite revealing, but once again no one can be absolutely sure,” says Char. “There is another school of thought, according to which He Wedong has been involved in the last two weeks in preparations for military exercises around Taiwan.”
From Tuesday, the combined forces of EPL’s oriental theater command performed surprise exercises around Taiwan for two days in a row, testing the ability to block the autonomous island, simulate attacks on its ports and other critical infrastructures and launch long-range attacks with real fire.
The commander of the command of East Theater from 2019 to 2022 was he. It was during his mandate that the command of the Eastern Theater organized huge military exercises and fired missiles around Taiwan in August 2022, in retaliation against the visit of the then Mayor of US Representatives, Nancy Pelo, Taipé.
A prolonged absence of public opinion is not always a sign of problems for Chinese employees. Some appeared again and resumed their functions. Nor is it unusual for employees to be interrogated by corruption hunters to help investigations into their colleagues.
Last November, Defense Minister Dong Jun was charged with corruption by the Financial Times, citing US officials. The China Ministry of Defense rejected the news as a “pure invention.” Dong Jun appeared again in public a week later. The minister was also seen on Wednesday to participate in a tree planting event at the state station.
Military purges
After reaching power, XI consolidated control over the world’s greatest armed forces, overthrowing powerful generals of rival factions and replacing them with allies and protected loyal.
But a decade later, having structurally reformed the EPL, Xi is still sunk in his seemingly endless struggle against corruption and disloyalty – and is increasingly turning against his own finger -chosen leals.
Since the summer of 2023, more than a dozen High Level Figures of China’s Establishment have been expelled in a comprehensive purge centered on the country’s nuclear force and equipment acquisition, including two CMC defense ministers.
The current stir in the high Patents of the ELP has raised questions about Xi’s ability to end systemic corruption in the Armed Forces and increase its combat capacity at a height of added geopolitical tensions.
“The recurring purgos of the highest ELP leaders indicate that Xi Jinping does not trust their office of officers,” says Drew Thompson, senior member of RSIS.
“The constant removal of so many superior officers, as well as the extent of corruption to the top, has no doubt an effect on the ELP moral and probably also on its military capacities,” adds Thompson.
But some analysts note that by this time the ELP may already be used to shaking in their high commands.
“The heads of heads in the ELP seem to have normalized to the point of becoming an integral part of the ELP existence,” says Collin Koh, another RSIS researcher.
The Chinese Armed Forces may have begun to get used to the purge – to a point where they are able to isolate them from their daily operational activities and continue to work as usual, Koh observes.
“It does not necessarily mean that due to purgos, the ELP has begun to give in in terms of readiness. These purges may potentially have the effect of reminding the ELP that they should better do their work – if we want to escape the purges, one way to do it is to obey what the party tells us, which is prepared for conflict,” says Koh.
A close confidant
Like Miao, it is believed that he established narrow personal ties with XI during the years they lived together in Fujian, where the future Chinese leader was rising in the hierarchy as a local employee in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Both he and Miao spent most of their career at the service of the former 31st group of armies in Fujian, which became an important power base for Xi. Since Xi took over, at the end of 2012, a series of military personnel from the 31st group of armies have been promoted quickly.
General He was no exception. In 2013, he was promoted to Commander of the Jiangsu Military District; Less than a year later, he became commander of the Shanghai garrison. In 2016, he was again promoted to command the land forces of the Western Theater Command, which oversees the China border with India.
He was promoted to General in 2017, when he became commander of the East Theater Command, responsible for leading any military invasion or blockade of Taiwan.
But the final sign of Xi’s confidence in He came at the 20th Party Congress in 2022, when he obtained the vice presidency of the CMC – an exceptionally rapid rise for an officer who had not served in the Communist Party Central Committee.
During the remodeling of the leadership, Xi put six loyal members at CMC. If it is confirmed that it is being investigated, he will be the first acting vice president of the powerful military organism to be purged by Xi and the third member of the current CMC to fall into disgrace.
The last time a vice president of the CMC was purged was more than three decades ago, when the then party secretary general, Zhao Ziyang, was deprived of sympathizing with students who manifested themselves in the Tiananmen pro-democracy movement in 1989.
“What happens to He Wedong gives us a window to the way the political system in China is being restructured by Xi Jinping,” says Char, referring to the reform of the rigid political structure of the ELP.
“I don’t think anyone in the system is currently irreplaceable,” says Char. “This is what makes a politically strong man. Xi is relentless and is continually purging his own ranks to keep his generals alert.”
