European markets are looking for the comeback but with little brio. After three days of historical losses, investors take a respite to try to recover part of the lost terrain. There is a tense calm in the stock market, waiting for the new tariffs of US President Donald Trump to enter into force in a few hours. The Ibex, despite opening upwards, is debated between profits and losses. In other European places, the increases also loosen: Germany earns 0.9%, France 1.4%and London, 1.2%. Wall Street futures anticipate an upward opening, around 1.5%, after finishing Monday’s session with limited declines, and the Nasdaq technological even ended in green, in a chaotic day in which a false rumor. Oil rises more than 1% this Tuesday. But investors do not trust and nervousness still flies the parques. The dollar continues to weaken and the profitability of the bonds continues under pressure. And there are other symptoms of great restlessness, such as the CBOE, or Vix volatility index, has exceeded 60, the highest level since the beginning of the pandemic.
The bags remain fragile, but more temperate. After capitalization in three days, investors are eager for some good news. Trump is still in not changing a comma of his tariff program, although yesterday he celebrated that Japan send a negotiating team to the United States to initiate conversations about trade. The president, which would elevate them to 104%, in a new escalation of the commercial war, and Beijing says that “he will fight until the end.” The European Union, meanwhile, has offered Washington a policy, a proposal that Trump has rejected. If there is no last minute route change, everything seems to indicate that specific tariffs by countries that the US president announced last week.
S&P 500 futures rise about 1% and those of NASDAQ advance 1.1%. In Asia, the best tone is also felt especially in Tokyo, given the conversations to try a trade agreement with the US. The Nikkei wins 5.9%, after losing 8.6% in the previous three days. Hong Kong Hang Seng, which yesterday fell more than 12%, is listed flat. And the Shanghai compound index rises 0.4%.
“A small ray of light is beginning to emerge that gives hope that the United States will be really open to commercial negotiations, being the most significant that of Japan with the Treasury Secretary, Besent,” says Tapas Strickland, an analyst at the National Australia Bank, which emphasizes that volatility remains extremely high, as Reuters collects.
Among the values of the Spanish Stock Exchange are the bank, very penalized in the previous sessions. Sabadell rises 2%and Santander 1.5%, CaixaBank, around 1%. The BBVA, on the other hand, falls 2% since it discounts the dividend, which pays Thursday. IAG also rises more than 3%. Aena Baja more than 2% and Ibedrola is left 1%.
An indicator that the sensitivity of the market is in the leather flower was the episode yesterday of the false rumor that Trump was planning to give a 90 -day truce with tariffs to all countries except China, which caused a fulminating (and ephemeral) reaction of US bags: in a few minutes they went from falling 4% to 3%. The official denial placed the indexes in negative, but the losses were contained, although there has been no negotiating advance or any concession by Trump. Last night, after receiving in the White House the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump denied any postponement in the application of specific tariffs for each region, that is, the date of April 9 is maintained.
Before possible new shaking, investors continue to monopolize assets considered refuge. The gold rises 1.5% today and each ounce costs $ 3.018, near debt, the profitability of the US bonus at 10 years came to fall yesterday 22 points, although later recovered and quotes around 4.1%. The German bonus at that time starts the session at 2.63% and the Spanish stands at 3.32%.
In the currency market, Yen and the Swiss Franco rise, while the weakness of the dollar continues. To the fear of the recession, the most aggressive cuts expectations in interest rates in the United States are added. The market already discounts a relaxation of 125 basic points for the end of the year, which is equivalent to five cuts from 25 points each, according to interest rates swaps. Until last week, before Trump announced much more aggressive tariffs than expected, the operators waited only three cuts. The green ticket falls slightly in front of the euro, and each and euro costs $ 1,096.
In raw materials, oil prices recover timidly and brent’s futures, reference in Europe, rise 1.3%, to $ 65.06 per barrel. In the three previous sessions, the barrel has lost 14% and has been at least 2021. A point of special concern for oil markets is the growing commercial tension between China and the United States, which can stop growth and even bring to recession to great powers such as the United States.
“I would say that [la mejoría] It fits more to a bassist rebound, something that operators should try to dissipate, instead of believing that we have reached a key turning point for a sustained upward trend, ”concludes Chris Weston, director of analysis of the Pepperstone firm.
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